The complexity of modern networked systems has negative consequences in the form of intended and unintended security incidents. Information security is not the first field to grapple with such challenges. In safety, incident learning systems (ILS) have been used to control high risk environments. Many of these systems, such as NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System, have demonstrated considerable success while others have failed. Prior to implementing ILS in information security, it is prudent to learn from experiences gained in safety. We use System Dynamics to investigate how factors such as management commitment, incentives, recriminations and resources affect a safety incident learning system. We find that the rate of incidents is not a suitable indicator of the state of the system. An increasing or decreasing incident rate may both be caused by either increased or decreased security. Other indicators, such as the severity of incidents, should be used.
Designing public policy and industry strategy to bolster the transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by historical failed attempts. The transition occurs within a complex system with many distributed actors, long time delays, several feedback relationships, and multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most important AFV transition barriers. In this work, the integrated model is parameterized for various vehicle platforms. Structural and parametric sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to identify policy leverage points. The qualitative impacts of policies are tested individually and then in combinations to find synergies. Under plausible assumptions and strong policies, successful AFV diffusion can occur but requires several decades. Findings indicate that some commonly suggested policies provide little leverage and are quite costly. The analysis demonstrates the importance of designing policy cognizant of the system structure underlying its dynamic behavior. To reach a self-sustaining market, coordinated portfolios of policy instruments must simultaneously foster the development of consumer familiarity, well-distributed fueling infrastructure, and vehicle manufacturer knowledge at similar rates and over long enough duration to surpass thresholds in these complementary assets.
Fifteen years ago, Jay Forrester laid the cornerstones for a more effective kindergarten through 12th grade (K-12) education based on system dynamics. In this paper, teachers and other educators who have been implementing system dynamics and systems thinking in schools across the United States reflect on their progress. Although all of the educators have been encouraged and inspired by student engagement and insight using system dynamics in their classrooms, wider adoption has encountered obstacles. Strategies to overcome them include: improving the quality and quantity of system dynamics curriculum materials and training opportunities for teachers, integrating the use of systems thinking tools with system dynamics simulation to give students the full benefit of both, seeking ways to work within the K-12 institution to effect change, and working together to learn from successes and mistakes.
Contrary to S-curve diffusion theory, historical introductions of alternative transportation fuels (ATFs) exhibit a variety of adoption patterns. Analysis of ATF introductions in the market place of natural gas in Argentina and New Zealand and ethanol in Brazil reveals that the aggregate dynamics cannot be traced back to a single dominant mechanism of change. ATF diffusion embodies several coevolutionary processes, including: the development of the vehicle installed base, consumer preferences and driver behavior, the evolution of technology and complementarities, such as a fueling infrastructure, and the transformation of fuel and automotive supply chains. Further, their diffusion is conditioned by institutional contexts. A behavioral dynamic model with a broad system boundary helps understanding failures and successes of ATF diffusion. While successful diffusion, such as promised by the Brazil case, is possible, the analysis reveals complex dynamics, requiring long periods of commitment and coordination across various types of actors. The paper develops initial steps towards a framework for studying the rich dynamics of socio-technical systems change. Central in such a process based framework are the mechanisms within interorganizational fields, capturing decisions and actions from consumers, organizations across industries and policymakers, and including the system-physiological aspects. We discuss implications for policy and strategy.
In various articles and books, Kaplan and Norton maintain that use of a Balanced Scorecard (BSC) will increase an organization's ability to execute its strategy and therefore ultimately improve its performance. They substantiate their hypothesis with numerous cases for which they report breakthrough performance. Nonetheless, published empirical evidence for the BSCs positive impact on performance is sparse.
This article aims to contribute to the empirical research on the BSCs performance impact describing a laboratory experiment. Using a computer-based feedback-rich micro-world, the subjects were placed in a top manager position. Their task was to implement a given strategy as best as they could, which meant to translate strategy into operational decisions over a period of 10 years. The experiment group was equipped with a BSC management cockpit that was carefully tailored to the strategy, while the control group had to rely on traditional reports as information source.
The experiment data are used to test the hypothesis that subjects provided with the BSC cockpit perform better than the control group. Statistical analysis shows that this hypothesis could not be rejected. The BSC cockpit indeed had a positive impact on performance. Some possible explanations for this finding are discussed and issues for further research are outlined.
The objective of this paper is to develop and evaluate a micro-economical microworld which will allow policy makers to gain more insight in parameters that influence the Belgian fishery fleet structure.
In a later stage, this microworld may contribute to the process of developing a long-term strategy for the Belgian fishery sector, serving as a laboratory for ex-ante evaluation of possible strategies. (Keys, Fulmer, and Stumpf 1996; De Geus 1997) By visualizing decisions and strategies (Morecroft 1999), it generates insights about fleet dynamics in response to a changing environment and policy changes.
System Dynamics is no longer new, but its impact on the wider world is still quite immature. Newer technologies have been taken up much faster and more broadly, bringing about huge societal changes. Is System Dynamics fundamentally different, and do essential characteristics necessarily restrict it to narrower impacts and a slower rate of diffusion? The answers lie in innovation. This paper describes how innovation by practitioners will profoundly change the practice of System Dynamics and its societal impact.
This paper explores the dynamics of the development of grid-based electrification compared to off-grid electrification in Kenya. Consumers in Kenya who can afford to use electricity must choose to be connected to the national grid or to purchase a standalone system (usually diesel or photovoltaic generators). This decision is based not on price alone, but on the relative availability and reliability of the options. Although competition usually spurs growth, in this case it appears that the presence of strong off-grid choices may be hindering the development of the grid. If this is the true, energy planners might need to consider policy options which encourage the grid and off-grid markets to work as complements.
As we approach the 50th Anniversary of System Dynamics, researchers and practitioners have yet to reach a consensus on the components of systems thinking or a method for measuring systems thinking in individuals. This paper reviews the state of thinking about systems thinking and researcher reports of efforts to assess systems thinking. As the foundation for developing an assessment framework to be able to determine an individuals level of system thinking, we present a review of the literature and the results of a survey administered to participants at the 2006 Systems Thinking and Dynamic Modeling for K-12 Conference, in Marlboro, Massachusetts.
This paper builds a system dynamics model to study the impact of some activities of public corruption on economic growth. The model is articulated around a generic economy in which a public and a private sector take part. The sectors produce different goods using the same available economic resources. Both use labour and could employ different criteria for remunerating their workers. The difference between the private and public wage allows the model to justify the introduction and the persistence over time of public corrupt activities in the economy. The causal structure collects the decisions and the rules of behaviour of the economic agents. It reflects the normal economic activities and the interactions between them and the new causal relationships arising from the corruption activities. The feedback processes totally explains why corruption modifies both the public and private production as well as the wealth of some citizens. After formulating the decision rules of the economic agents, calibrating the values of the parameters and the initial conditions of the levels, a simulation exercise is carried out to characterize the growth attained by the economy under different scenarios taking into account different degrees of corruption and different ways for fighting against it.