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Download PDFSupple, Derek, "Managing the Transition toward Self-Sustaining Alternative Fuel Vehicle Markets: Policy Analysis Using a Dynamic Model", 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
- 2007 July 29-2007 August 2
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Designing public policy and industry strategy to bolster the transition to alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) is a formidable challenge as demonstrated by historical failed attempts. The transition occurs within a complex system with many distributed actors, long time delays, several feedback relationships, and multiple tipping points. A broad-boundary, behavioral, dynamic model with explicit spatial structure was previously developed to represent the most important AFV transition barriers. In this work, the integrated model is parameterized for various vehicle platforms. Structural and parametric sensitivity analyses are used to build understanding of system behavior and to identify policy leverage points. The qualitative impacts of policies are tested individually and then in combinations to find synergies. Under plausible assumptions and strong policies, successful AFV diffusion can occur but requires several decades. Findings indicate that some commonly suggested policies provide little leverage and are quite costly. The analysis demonstrates the importance of designing policy cognizant of the system structure underlying its dynamic behavior. To reach a self-sustaining market, coordinated portfolios of policy instruments must simultaneously foster the development of consumer familiarity, well-distributed fueling infrastructure, and vehicle manufacturer knowledge at similar rates and over long enough duration to surpass thresholds in these complementary assets.
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