Online Content
1 entry found
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- In this paper, first of all, a qualitative analysis is done on a general infections disease SD model, and a new epidemic threshold value and an epidemic scale forecasting formula are proposed. Then in consideration of the properties of type-A hepatitis and its eruptive spread SD model is put forward. A lot of work in various aspects is done, for example: the problem to simulate the type-A hepatitis incubation period is solved practically; the simulation results fitted in with the reality are achieved; through simulation analysis and qualitative analysis, the reason for that the predicted 2nd peak of this spread didn’t appear is found out; the short-term and long-term prospects of Shanghai type-A hepatitis situation are brought forward; especially, hypotheses about the mechanisms of the periodic epidemic and the eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis are put forward. These results are imbued with guiding significance for prevention and control of the type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.