Su, Mao-Kang with Huan-Chen Wang, "The Spread of ‘88 Shanghai Type-A Hepatitis: A System Dynamics Model And Analysis", 1990

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In this paper, first of all, a qualitative analysis is done on a general infections disease SD model, and a new epidemic threshold value and an epidemic scale forecasting formula are proposed. Then in consideration of the properties of type-A hepatitis and its eruptive spread SD model is put forward. A lot of work in various aspects is done, for example: the problem to simulate the type-A hepatitis incubation period is solved practically; the simulation results fitted in with the reality are achieved; through simulation analysis and qualitative analysis, the reason for that the predicted 2nd peak of this spread didn’t appear is found out; the short-term and long-term prospects of Shanghai type-A hepatitis situation are brought forward; especially, hypotheses about the mechanisms of the periodic epidemic and the eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis are put forward. These results are imbued with guiding significance for prevention and control of the type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.

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  • 1990
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