In this paper, first of all, a qualitative analysis is done on a general infections disease SD model, and a new epidemic threshold value and an epidemic scale forecasting formula are proposed. Then in consideration of the properties of type-A hepatitis and its eruptive spread SD model is put forward. A lot of work in various aspects is done, for example: the problem to simulate the type-A hepatitis incubation period is solved practically; the simulation results fitted in with the reality are achieved; through simulation analysis and qualitative analysis, the reason for that the predicted 2nd peak of this spread didn’t appear is found out; the short-term and long-term prospects of Shanghai type-A hepatitis situation are brought forward; especially, hypotheses about the mechanisms of the periodic epidemic and the eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis are put forward. These results are imbued with guiding significance for prevention and control of the type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.

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Date created

• 1990

Type

• Document

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• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

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386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a

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e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

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Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives