Online Content

1. Su, Mao-Kang with Huan-Chen Wang, "The Spread of ‘88 Shanghai Type-A Hepatitis: A System Dynamics Model And Analysis"

Type:
Document
Date Created:
1990
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/hd76sj76h?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:45:21Z
Description:
In this paper, first of all, a qualitative analysis is done on a general infections disease SD model, and a new epidemic threshold value and an epidemic scale forecasting formula are proposed. Then in consideration of the properties of type-A hepatitis and its eruptive spread SD model is put forward. A lot of work in various aspects is done, for example: the problem to simulate the type-A hepatitis incubation period is solved practically; the simulation results fitted in with the reality are achieved; through simulation analysis and qualitative analysis, the reason for that the predicted 2nd peak of this spread didn’t appear is found out; the short-term and long-term prospects of Shanghai type-A hepatitis situation are brought forward; especially, hypotheses about the mechanisms of the periodic epidemic and the eruptive spread of type-A hepatitis are put forward. These results are imbued with guiding significance for prevention and control of the type-A hepatitis and other infectious diseases.