Online Content
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- This paper addresses the widespread belief that today’s public schools are not preparing our youth to conquer the problems of tomorrow. Although there is consensus within both academia and business that the need for reform is urgent, there is no generally accepted strategy for achieving improvement, nor is money to finance the job readily available. Creative ideas by great teachers are certainly the nucleus for reform, and, contrary to common opinion, there are many good ideas, and many great teachers.But teachers are not the only players. All schools are dynamic systems of great complexity. Unfortunately, many essential features of school-system structures are poorly understood. As a result, well intended attempts at reform since World War II have often merely tweaked the system rather than implanting permanent improvement. Most proposals have focused on more math, more science, longer school days or more homework, without understanding why there is such small yield from what already exists in the schools. This author believes that only by a major restructuring of the relations between student and teacher, by the adoption of a new paradigm for the teaching-learning process, and by the introduction of much modern technology into the classroom, will our schools fulfill the demands that the future will make on students.The restructuring program, described herein has been carried out in the Orange Grove Middle School in the Catalina Foothills School Districts (CFSD), Tucson, Arizona.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Recently a System Dynamic simulation model of supply and demand of the dental health care system in The Netherlands has been developed. This model includes major demographical, pathological, psychological, sociological and economical processes comprising the demand side. The supply side covers the availability of dentists, dental hygienists and factors which determine their productivity.The main purpose of the model is to create an instrument for analyzing the Dutch dental health care system. A relatively simple model with e.g. 20 state variables just describing the main concepts of this system was not considered to be sufficient. Therefore, starting from a simple model, during the past decade a far more complex model has been developed. It contains for instance 440 state variables. This model has already proven to be very satisfactory with regard to its descriptive qualities. However, the necessity for working with complex models also has negative side-effects. Apart from the great effects needed constructing, validating and analyzing the model, it is well known that the more complex the model, the more difficult to communicate about its results and properties, with people for whom the model might be useful. This is even more so if it concerns people from outside the academic world (in this case for instance the dental profession or policy makers).In this paper attention will be focused firstly on a short introduction concerning the model and its structure. Secondly, our experiences with the model will be used as an example of our ideas about how to construct sophisticated models with a high descriptive quality, while at the same time making them at least acceptable for those who might use its results, but were not directly involve in the construction of it.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Excellence of organizations over time requires high performance on the job by ever broader groups of employees. As technology evolves and population’s education improves typical employees are required less and less frequently to perform mechanical tasks or even to make limited repetitive decisions. The trend is for humans to carry out jobs with an ever greater context of complex analysis, creativity or non programmable decisions or human interactions. These activities can be performed on a consistent level of excellence only by well directed and highly motivated people.A schematic model is proposed that generalizes observations and actual experience on how management may ensure that the essential conditions for outstanding job performance by all individuals within an organization be realized consistently over time.Outstanding job performance over time occurs when: an adequate match between job requirements and individual skills and attitudes exists, a strong motivation is felt by all individuals, the social climate is favorable to excellent job performance and adequate equipment to do the job is available. These conditions are the result of complex dynamic interactions by viewing them as an integrated system.Employees’ motivation, development, growth in responsibilities and mutual trust between employees and management are a key portion of the model. Substantial attention is given to interactive shaping of realistic expectations regarding job conditions, self realization and compensation, both material and psychological.The management most likely to achieve excellence appears to be the one that sees its role as that of generating wealth, providing wellbeing for employees and distributing wealth fairly between shareholders and employees.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- A new Fernbank Museum of National History, to be located in Atlanta, is in the planning stage. A major series of exhibits is entitled “A Walk Through Time.” The walk culminates in exhibits which address the future. The museum planners wish to introduce the museum audience to computer modeling as an increasingly powerful tool with which to address societal problems. One exhibit is to present an exemplary computer model whose role is primarily tutorial. The model will treat limited facets of an urban system. The exhibit will present the model at two, or perhaps three, tiers of sophistication. The simplest presentation will utilize stored computer output in order to demonstrate model structure, interactions within the system, and some behavior patterns. Another presentation, also utilizing stored computer output, will allow audience participation in a restricted choice of model parameters. There may be a third exhibit tier in which less restricted parameter changes can be made in an interactive model.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- The normative view of rationality has been used for many years as the principal framework from which to analyze performance outcomes. Analyses of managerial behavior from this essentially reductionist view contain the argument that decision makers often fail to “correctly” observe and act upon the situations they face. A growing number of behavioral decision theorists, however, argue that the conclusions about behavior which have been derived from the normative view are misleading because they may be artifacts of the theoretical assumptions or empirical approaches used by analysts. The questions that this distinction raises are particularly important to systems scientists because they bear directly on whether powerful reductionist models of inquiry and evaluation, firmly entrenched in traditional scientific norms, will or should continue to dominate holistic perspectives for thinking about behavior in complex systems. The purpose of this paper is thus to review and explore differences that exist between the normative and non-normative views, and to use this synthesis as a framework for understanding the relative importance of the viewpoints as they relate to evaluating managerial performance.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Planning of rural development in developing countries requires participation and integration of various disciplines, such as economics, sociology, agriculture and health. Very often not all relevant disciplines participate and if they do, they analyze, plan and implement their programs separately. This paper presents an example of how simulation modeling can be helpful for interdisciplinary analysis of rural areas in the Third World. The analysis of the Bor District, an area in Southern Sudan, serves as an example.First a general verbal and graphical overview of the situation in the rural area of the Bor District is provided. This is followed by a more detailed analysis regarding the population, the food consumption, the agricultural production and the livestock production of the area.Due to lack of data, a common problem in remote areas in the Third World, many parameters has to be derived from studies of other, but to some extent similar, areas. Validation was therefore carried out by means of a sensitivity analysis and by comparing the model results with development in other areas. Experiments have been carried out by simulating the effects of one or more interventions, such as improvement of health services, veterinary services, the availability of water and schools, employment opportunity and the quantity of imported food, and the introduction of improved agricultural methods. The results indicate, that several interventions that initially seem to benefit the development of the area, prove to be disastrous after a number of years. In addition to that, some processes, that are unimportant in periods of stability, appear to become important when the system becomes unstable.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- Initial testing is now complete on the TEMS instrument, the Technical Education Modeling and Simulation system. This research in the Industrial Education Department at Clemson University is a three phased project. The phases include developing an instrument (TEMS) similar to DYNAMO II (Pugh, 1970) for the modeling of socio-econ-educational systems, reducing world model concepts to a regional model for the state of South Carolina, and integrating technical education attributes and effects into the classical capital sector for this regional model.The TEMS system is developed in dBASE IV and ’C’. It has all the model definition building features and run characteristics of DYNAMO II. Written for an IBM AT class of equipment, TEMS will replicate the WORLD2 model (Forrester, 1971) results in 40 minutes for a 100 year run. TEMS supports both the real time graphic mappings of selected variables and post analysis graphics. It has both an integrated statistical interface to SPSS statistics and a reporting system for model runs, definitions, user created functions and run time statistics.Experimentation is in progress to calculate a CHAOS mapping for the class of level variable equations. Using this Verhulst equation mapping, TEMS should then dampen any wild ramping and explosiveness for these selected variables during the simulation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- A system dynamics model of food grain storage, government procurement and release, and import in Bangladesh is presented. The simulation results of the model for govt. procurement and release, and import policies are also presented. Finally, the policy implications of the model are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- This paper attempts to asses the impact of past and presently contemplated policies to maintain food self-sufficiency in a centrally-planned economy. The case of Vietnam is used as an illustration. Experimentation with a system dynamics model of the food production system incorporating relationships concerning soil ecology and agricultural land management policy serves as a basis for this assessment. Short-run policies to increase production are detrimental to maintaining food self-sufficiency in the long-run. A sustainable food production policy must incorporate soil conservation and improvement, control of population and possibly, finding food sources alternative to grain. Although difficult to implement in a market system, such a policy agenda may be feasible in a centrally-planned economy.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1990
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, e3ebd4855fa658877b17f518e29a6ac9, and 386b7d5fcd17a644199db727913a7a7a
- Description:
- :The primary focus of the research reported in this paper was on the measurement of the value of information in the business firm. It involved development of a system dynamic model of a typical business firm and calibration of the model to an average firm in the can industry in the United States. The model has the five sectors of marketing, finance, production, research and development, and personnel. Data to calibrate the model came primarily from the Industrial Compustat data base. The model was used to test several propositions about the economic value of management information. This topic has been addressed by Morecroft (1977, 1979), Jones (1981) and others. The research extends work by them as well as demonstrating the multidimensional nature of information using the Gorry and Scott-Morton framework of typical information structure. A framework in which to assess information value is developed and discussed.The performance of the firm was assessed using cost, profitability and efficiency measures under various values for the information attributes of accuracy, timeliness, relevance and reliability at the strategic, managerial and operational levels of the firm. Several propositions about information value are offered given the results of the testing.