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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- The paper researches into a typical example of a developed region with a boomtown of China, studies the coordinate development of economy, and population migration of that region, analyzes the mechanism and theory of industrialization of the rural area. A systems dynamics model created to study of urbanization is exhibited and explained. The paper makes comments on current policy. And by the simulation, various policies are examined, the paper finds out the more reasonable coordinative growth rate and scale among industry, agriculture and town construction. The interaction between a special region and outside in the process of industrialization and urbanization is also a subject of discussion. The general conclusions and suggestions on industrialization and urbanization of rural area of China are put forward.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- In the past thirty years of initial industilization of its economy, China has established a primary industry system. But the unbalanced development in economy resulting from the industry policy of laying under stress on the industry aggregates to form a obstacle which hinders the further development. A great change in economy has occurred since 1984. The paper presents a historical review about the causes of the unbalanced structure, analyzing the present situation and discussing the possible impacts of the structure changes by means of a system dynamics model. The analyses and the simulation results of the model show that pertaining to past industry policy would put limits on the further development, new policy must be carried out. But on the other hand, a long period of time would be required for the completion of the changes. The expectation of rapidly change would prove to be unrealistic.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- In contrast with those fast growing of small- or mid-size cities' economy, big cities in China are suffering a lot of difficulties: the deterioration of the external condition of production, the decay of the industry structure, the shortage of municipal infrastructure, the fund scarcity, etc.. People have been discussing the limit factors of big cities for times, but we still need more quantitative and dynamic analysis of the whole system. In this paper we use the system dynamics model to simulate the behavior of a big city, conclude that within this century the main limits to the economic growth of a big city is the production condition, including energy, material, and transportation supply, while after the early years of the next century, the market demand, which is determined by the cost and the quality of product as well as the economic development of other areas, will be the real limit to a big city. Policy testing shows that the effective adjustments to big cities are the improvement of material supply as well as the speeding up of the capital discarding.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- Based on the system dynamics approach, this paper tries to examine the structural causes of the long term performance of the economy after the reform, make the comparative researches on the financial and monetary system before and after the reform, and evaluate whether the system dynamics approach is a powerful tool to analyze the economy in a developing country such as China. After the description of the structure of the national financial and monetary model of China, the modeling approach is summarized in the paper. The formulation of the principal subsystems and the interactions among them are briefly introduced. The behavior of the model, and the four economic leverages -- price, tax rate, interest rate, and loan leverage, are mainly concerned and discussed. The policies designed for economic reform are examined with the DYNAMO simulation, the different results related to the different policies are compared. At last the programs and the possible futures related to them for the economic reform are given in suggestion.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- System dynamics created by professor Jay W. Forrester at MIT, is a field which bases on system theory, absorbs the quintessence of control theory, and draws support from computer simulation technique. Established by professor Deng Julong at Central China Institute of Science and Technology in 1982, grey system theory derives its idea and methodology mainly from control theory and operations research. Although system dynamics and grey system theory both have their own features in methodology and processing technique, there are still a lot of common points between them. From the comparative study on these two fields, the paper arrives at that it is not only necessary but also possible to infiltrate and draw on the experiences of each other to develop themselves.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- With the sustained development in science and technology method of system optimization has more and more widely been applied to the area of science, technique, engineering, economy, etc. The optimization theory is strongly supported by the birth and the development of computers. System dynamics models are good at understanding complex systems with the characteristics of high-order, multi-loops and nonlinear (say socio-economic systems). The purpose of this paper is to combine the modeling process of a system dynamics model with the optimization method so as to make the system synthesis more perfect. Because of the specific properties of large scale systems, there are some serious difficulties in completely optimizing systems. In many cases, it is impossible to find an overall optimization for complex systems. However, the quasi-optimization for dynamic systems is still available. This paper develops some ideas of the parameter quasi-optimization for system dynamic models and presents a practical method. Its advantages include that the goal of the parameter quasi-optimization is clear, the precision is controllable, the quasi-optimal indices are conveniently regulated, the whole process can be automatically completed by a computer, repeating computations and simulations are not needed. Besides system synthesis, this method can also be applied to system analysis such as the parameter quasi-optimization after decoupling a system, selecting the dominant loops, separating the interest substructures, etc. The final goal of this paper is to make a solid fundation for a common used modeling software package.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- The rapid development and wide application of microelectronics has been making the production activity and life style changing, with great reformation in world economies. Weather or not can a country make achievement in developing hi-teches such as microelectronics is a serious challenge to both developed countries and developing countries including China. What can be done by China under the chelange and how about the future of microelectronics in China are of most concerns amonog decision makers in China.A brief study is presented in the paper on the interrelation between microelectronics and socio-economic environment and all the effects from the relevant environmental factors. The paper also shows the research work on the development of scienice and technology in Chinia which is considered the most concerning problem to the development of microelectronics. Some viewpoints on the future of microelectronics in China derived from the research are given at the end of the paper.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- Being two different branches of the system science, System Dynamics and Synergetics share many common concepts and mathematical manipulation techniques. The comparative study of the two subjects will help accelerate the developments of both subjects as well as the whole system science. In this paper, the authors first introduce the basic ideas and mathematical handling techniques of synergetics, then that of system dynamics. Finally, the two subjects are compared from the angles of both the concept and the mathematical manipulation technique. The following are the major points of this paper: 1) Synergetics deals with systems that are self-organized. It studies how such systems evolve in a self-organized fashion, how new patterns are brought about, or in a philosophical sense, how the animate and the inanimate world evolve. In contrast, the systems, with which system dynamics deals, are partially self-organized, partially man-made. It studies the relationship between system structure and system function. 2) The general equations of both synergetics and system dynamics are nonlinear, stochastical partial differential equations of high order. 3) Synergetics focuses its attentions on nonequilibrium phase transition, i.e. pattern formulation, while system dynamics endeavors, with most its efforts, to study the dynamic behavior of a system with some kinds of structure.4) There are many concepts as well as mathematical handling techniques that are counterpart and can be used as a reference to each other, such as order parameter vs. sensitive parameter or minor structure; order parameter equations vs. dominant loop equations; slaving principle vs. the principle that dominant loops mainly determine the dynamic behavior of a system; adiabetic elimination vs. the insensitivity of system behavior to most parameters; linear stability analysis vs. Lyapunov method I & II, gain and phase shift analysis, etc.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- System Dynamics, founded by professor Forrester at Massachusetts Iustitute of Technology in 1956, is a discipline which analyzes and studies the system of information feedback. Basic views of theories of system dynamics distinctively show its dialectical characteristics. More attention should be paid to the features of complicated nonlinear systems. The model simulation of system dynamics is a kind of structure-function simulation. One of the remarkable advantages of system dynamics is that it can handle problems of high order, nonlinear, and multiple-feedback system.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1987
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd, and ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416
- Description:
- The regional demand-supply and training mechanism of talent is regarded as a feedback-cnotrol structure under the synergetic actions of education, society and economy. By building ESE simulation system, we have studied its stability in operation and its sensibility to main parameters. We have attempted the combination of SD with LP (Linear Programming), and some initial conclusions are reached which can further be discussed.Using the principles of the Education-Economics and SD methods to forecast and program the demand-supply of talent is becoming very popular in the educational theory circle of our country recently. There are many scholars whose studies have really shown the originality of SD method, but there are two problems that little attentions have been paid in their studies. One is that forecasting is not the strong point of SD, and it is also not competent for programming by SD methods only, the other is that we often pay more attention to the supply but neglect the demand between Education and Economy, which easily results in the lack of enough impetus to the system operation. Our paper tries to do some studies on overcoming the above two inadequate aspects.