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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- In the past, the most popular computer models for the construction management of major buildings were large models based on the graph theory and their consequent discrete event simulation on the mainframe computer to have a view of the operational level. We think that in the future if we want to remain competitive on the world market the trend will be the use of small system dynamics generic models in relation to micro-computers at the strategic management level that can generate the reference modes i.e. the project control baselines.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- This paper presents a computerized system dynamics game in which the player makes "annual" decisions controlling the availability and evaluation of a new medical product with uncertain potential and possible (though initially undetected) side effects. The game has been implemented using the popular spreadsheet program Lotus 1-2-3. This program has on-screen display capabilities allowing for the construction of a user-friendly game that requires no knowledge of system dynamics. A detailed discussion of game mechanics is followed by a description of a classroom experience which led to further development of the original version of the game and some general insights about game-building.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- Within the MIT System Dynamics National Model, the risk-free interest rate is determined jointly by the normal interest rate and by liquidity. The normal rate is the rate which agents believe would obtain under normal circumstances, in the absence of transitory pressures. The normal rate continually adjusts to new interest rate conditions. During times of deficient liquidity, agents will increase the risk-free rate above the normal rate. The converse also holds. The risk-free rate will continue to adjust until pressures in the system are relaxed. Estimation results support the national model theory of interest rate formation.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- Although there are more than 3000 end uses of aluminium in the world and more than 300 in India, yet there are five sectors viz. power, consumer durables, transport, building consturction canning and packaging which account for more than 90% of aluminium consumption. To study the dynamics of demand of aluminium in these sectors, system dynamics model having various sectors viz. Population, economy, power, consumer durables, construction, packaging and canning, transport and aluminium consumption model has been simulated from 1970 to 2000 A.D. using dynamo.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- “Generic models,” as the term is emerging, denotes a model representing the underlying causes of commonly occuring sets of problems, whose purpose is for education, rather than for policy analysis per se. Preliminary uses of generic models have been an exciting and efficient means of transmitting insights. This paper is a status report on the modeling of a company's conversion to a new production or product technology. Based on information sources including in-depth interviews within such companies, the authors' previous experiences, and published surveys and cases, the planned model focuses on management goals, staffing, and acquisitions of the skills necessary to deal with the new technology or product. Although the model does not explain every (complete or partial) implementation failure, it seems relevant to a significant fraction of such failures. The authors intend to develop the model and curriculum materials for management education and portions of university courses on technology management.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- This paper presents the findings of my research in artificial intelligence applications for system dynamics. The sudden appearance of microcomputers in homes, schools, and businesses has opened an opportunity for dissemination of system dynamics to a wider audience than we could have ever hope to reach with the earlier computer technologies. This opportunity should not be lost by clinging to obsolete, or soon to be obsolete, technologies. User-friendly micro-based software should be immediately available to those individuals, schools, and corporations who are interested in systems thinking. The demand for such systems far surpasses the current supply. Artificial Intelligence software is now available for microcomputers. This new software development can significantly improve current and future systems for the novice and the experienced system dynamicist.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- The paper is an attempt at a theory of relations connecting feasible observations/ or measurements/ and feasible decisions/ or controls/ in general cybernetic systems. The theory gives a formal framework and a tool for quantitative analysis of the following facts: 1. An increase in observation possibilities, e.g. an increase of the precision of measurement, enlarging the scope of observation etc., results in an increase in decision possibilities by making more effective decisions possible. This works also in the other direction: if there are more feasible decision, new observations or measurements become available. 2. In the framework of a cybernetic model no decisions and/or observations which generate antinomies can be simultaneously feasible. This creates interesting and important constraints on measurements and decisions in systems which include man or where a human or automatic decision maker is an object of observation, and where the results of observation may be known to this decision maker. 3. The observation/measurement/ takes tome and changes its object and thus the result of observation always refers to past rather than to the present. This normally is due to physical effects through other phenomena, like psychological, may also be important depending on the nature of the object. The facts of group 1 are in a sense opposite to those of groups 2 and 3. This leads to the existence of optimum decision-measurement possibilities. Conditions for this optimum to exist together with its significance for biological and technological system will be discussed. The subject of this paper is of interdisciplinary interest and has been studied, partially and from particular angles, within the framework of control theory/facts of group 1/, mathematical logic/theory of antimonies, principles of mathematics-mainly facts of group 2/, physics/theory of measurement, principles of quantum machanics-mainly facts of group 3/ and philosophy/the classic problems of free will and consciousness/. The relevance of the presented theory to these fields will also be discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- Power demand forecasting methodologies which are currently being used by electricity authorities are end use method, trend method and Scheer's formula. These methodologies being static in nature, do not take into account the future power supply position, while becoming an important instrument of economic change the growth of power generation activity itself is totally dependent upon the overall economic development thus forming an important feedback loop in the economic system. Present paper discusses a power economy system dynamic model for estimation of future demand and supply position of Power.
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- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- A representation of socio-economic systems using reduced models allows a “qualitative” type of analysis to be carried out. It is often the case, especially in the long term process, that the main interest is directed towards the asymptotic behavior of the solutions as a function of the initial state and to evaluating the properties of stability of stationary states. In this article, after a short outline of the procedure and methodology adopted, we describe the application of these techniques in the construction and use of a dynamic model for the design of a tourist village. The model, which mainly deals with the impact of man on the environment, serves to evaluate the social and economic effects of the construction of a tourist centre in a national environment which must be conserved.
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Fritz, Richard G., "Economic Development and Financial Deepening: A Study of Causation and Dynamics"
- Type:
- Document
- Fecha de Creacion:
- 1985
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 8cc5e98280358f60c3a33cc99e75a20e, and 11576afb39e5cd4a779a3912c119ca81
- Descripción:
- The direction of causality between financial deepening and economic development is tested. Using factor analysis, two indexes are developed to represent the two economic phenomena for the Philippines. Time series causality tests are used to evaluate the direction of causality. The results indicate the causal pattern reverses over the history of the sample. Reversal is viewed as the result of financial repression. The structural dynamics implied by the empirical time series test is evaluated using a system dynamics model. The growth promoting and growth inhibiting roles of the financial sector are simulated in the dynamic structure of a dynamic economic development model.
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