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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- For policy makers in New York City the functioning of the criminal justice system appears to be deteriorating. During the last few years arrests by police have dropped. However inmate population continued to increase for over a year after the drop in arrests. In spite of the drop in court case, or case load per judge, the average length of time to dispose of a case continued to increase. During this time, the total number of judges working in New York City increased, further dropping the average caseload. The importance of this topic lies in the resistance of the criminal justice system to change and the high total cost of the system. Recent policy goals of New York City management have been to reduce needed jail capacity by reducing both the intake of inmates and average lengths of stay. New York City officials estimated that by reducing the inmate length of stay by ten days savings of $108 million could be realized.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- This paper reviews a recent period of change in traditional manufacturing environment of a large oil refinery, and the role of systems thinking techniques in this development process. The focus in on how the gradual adoption of these methods as part of normal working practices has contributed to changes in attitudes, behavior and performance. Attention is directed to the way the methods are themselves proving to be a vehicle for cultural development, as well as being of the toolkit used to analyse specific issues.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- The use of system dynamics (SD) is proposed to assist project managers in examining the consequences of their resources distribution plans. Justification of the selection of this technique is given, in particular why it is purposed as an alternative to statistical forecasting techniques. The focus of the research is to provide insights into how to reduce schedule slippages, which is thought to be a common dynamic behavioral problem. One objective in reaching this goal is to identify common SD structures. An overview of the original SD research contribution to the software engineering discipline is given. A brief description of the problem tackled and the model findings are outlined. Criticisms of the research process are developed to justify parts of our approach. To ensure that this practical research investigations is both relevant to managers and scientifically rigorous, a selection of both qualitative and quantitative methods are suggested to assist with the first objective. These are briefly justified and discussed in this paper.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- This paper examines the introduction of information system into the new environment of the National Health Service since restructuring in 1989. Taking its approach from Soft Systems Methodology, it looks at cultural analysis in the context of the development of decision support systems for hospital managers and medical staff. Drawing on the deeper cultural analysis developed by Schein, it examined the problems which face systems developers when attempting to seek an accommodation of views between groups which not only have different requirements but significantly different outlooks predicated by their roles in the hospital environment. Particular attention is focused on the survival instincts of these two groups when faced with an environment which is changing rapidly. The medical profession is seen as one which sees its former pre-eminence within the hospital threatened. This may have adverse effects on the development of system for doctors and managers alike but, unless the cultural dimension is addressed, solutions to hospital information problems will, at best, be partial.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- The paper uses systems thinking to interpret the dynamic interplay between social, political, and institutional forces that have influenced the management of a large urban water authority. This interpretation is used as a framework for assessing recent government initiatives to introduce competition into the water industry. The study is based on 100 years of history of the operation of Melbourne Water and current proposal to vertically disaggregate the business and to use a combination of industry regulation and yardstick competition to manage the industry. The paper attempts to demonstrate the importance of adopting a systemic approach to understanding the complex array of issues involved and to record some of the practical difficulties encountered in using this approach within a highly turbulent environment.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- We describe the development of a meta-level framework to be used as a structuring and controlling mechanism during management development workshops. The framework is constructed around the use of system metaphors and methodologies within a microworld workshop environment. Relevant elements from system methodologies are employed as transitional objects within these microworld environments, in order to provide a creative stimulus and reduce participant anxiety.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- It is widely believed that the world is entering the Information Age, and telecommunication companies must make critical investments decisions based on how much information customers will want to move in the future, Understanding and preparing for the range of possible customers demand scenarios is vital for long-term success in an increasingly competitive market. However, detailed forecasts are impossible to make since the market is as yet undefined. Scenario modelling is useful in developing the understanding telcos need to achieve success. We have developed a system dynamics model to investigate the effects of different business and technological drivers on the demand for future telecommunications services, using the software tool iThink. Drivers include the number of people teleworking and increasing computing powers. These interact to produce usage dynamics for generic services covering conversation, messaging and data transfer, which are then used to calculate resulting network traffic. Our results suggest that the key uncertainties are the rate of improvement in general IT sophistications, and the extent of teleworking. High growth in both of these produces rapid growth in peak traffic, whilst low teleworking delays that growth. Slower improvement in IT sophistication severely limits growth, since increasing computing power could stimulate large volumes of traffic. Small increases in the use of video applications also produce significant traffic growth, and these factors combine to give large uncertainties. The behavior of this system is discussed with reference to individual business sectors, demonstrating system dynamics as a useful approach for investigating telecoms supply-demand systems.
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Bar-Nahor, Ronen with Chanoch Jacobsen, "Introducing MIS: A Process of Directed Organization Change"
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- Despite the importance of computerized information system, many MISs are left idle or used only partially, having exceeded their budgets or time allocations. The basic problem is that critical interactions between software engineers, users, and the organization have been neglected. The reason for this neglect is the inter-disciplinary nature of the problem. There is a basic conflict of interest between managers’ need for efficiency, users’ desire for quality of working life, and software engineers' quest for sophisticated technical solutions. We have developed an integrated theory of the detailed processes and transformed it into System Dynamics model. Running the model against three time series of data from one organization that has introduced an MIS, we reproduced an average of 84% of the variances in the data. Our tentative conclusion is that introducing MIS is a special case of directed organizational change that requires cooperation between software engineers and OB experts.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- Model validation constitutes an important step in system dynamics methodology. Validation is a prolonged and complicated process, involving both formal/quantitative tools and informal/qualitative ones. This paper first provides a summary of the philosophical issues involved in model validation. We then focus on the formal model validation. We offer a flowchart that describes the logical sequence in which various validations activities must be carried out. We give examples of specific validity tests used in the three major categories of model validations: Structural tests, structure-oriented behavior tests and behavior pattern tests. Finally, we focus specifically on the logic of the behavior pattern validation and illustrate it on a mutli-step validation procedure. Currently, we are in the process of implementing this multi-step procedure on micro-computers, embedded in a friendly user-interface.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- This is the second paper in a series that aims to start a debate on issues involved in university-level system dynamics education. The first paper argues that the field has not experienced growth that one would expect from its potential and identifies several issues that need to be addressed by the system dynamic community, before the field can proliferate in universities. The second paper tackles some of those problems. More specifically, the paper discusses the academic definition of system dynamics: What is the academic core of system dynamics? What other objects are immediate relevance and importance with respect to this core. The paper offers answers to those questions. The second issue that the paper deals with is the problem of terminology. I discuss different types of terminology problems, the most significant being system dynamic, the very name of the field. System dynamics having an established meaning in mathematical and engineering sciences, does not convey the specific meaning that we wish to attach it. I discuss various potential problems caused by this situation. I then offer a short list of alternative, more specific names for the field. I conclude that, once the academic issues are rigorously tackled, the university-level system dynamics education should experience growth, which would be a major step toward activation an exponential growth process in the field in general.