In this paper, we connected the principles of System Dynamics with the intellectualized Decision Support System, proposed a theory and method system of “Simulation-Optimization-Planning –Decision”. An applicable Oil-Field Planning Support System is being built.
In this paper a case study is described in which a consultancy method based upon participative modeling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logistical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive advantage through drastic improvement of it delivery speed. The modeling project produced several valuable insights. These insights have resulted in a better logistical performance at lower cost. The participative approach taken in the project has made implementation of the recommendation resulting from the project easier. It has also resulted in a better quality of systems thinking and a better understanding of the operations system throughout the company. In short, in organizational learning. This case study has been conducted within a research project aimed at the development of a modeling orientated consultancy method to support strategic decision making in operations. Several observations made in this case study with respect to the development of this consultancy method are discussed.
Input-Output Model (I/O model) is an approach developed in economic world for development planning of a Nation. The model founded by a Noble Prize Winner, Prof. Leontief, focused the operation on the determination of production of economic commodities needed for development of a nation. The mathematical aspect of the model requires matrix analysis using equation (A-I)*X=Y as the basic calculation. Surprisingly, I/O model has received wide appreciation for calculating the economic of many nations, including developed countries such as US, Denmark, and Japan, and developing countries such as Indonesia as well. On the other hand, system dynamic approach founded by Prof. Jay Forrester are getting more attention in recent years and people start thinking of using the approach to solve various national development problems. However, since the application of the technique for establishment of world model, no one country yet uses comprehensively the approach to the national development planning. There has been a case study using the technique to exercise the development of Java Island Ecosystem in Indonesia, but it still needs to be more promoted for further application of the theory.As the development process of a nation does not anymore cover only economic concerns, while the environment and social dimension of a country are getting more attention, a national development planning will certainly requires a more comprehensive approach to analyze alternative scenarios to the development of the country. In such a case system dynamic approach seems to meet the requirement of a national development planning.
:The paper introduces a simple dynamical system associated to the influence diagram, which contains only qualitative information. It is analysed how with the information in the influence diagram only limited conclusions about the behavior of the system can be reached. However, with some extra qualitative information regarding the relative weight of the influences those limitations are overcome.
Long delivery delays and long asset life times can create market conditions that are not conductive to learning. An experiment recreated market cycle of 8 to 23 years. Subjects operated in a sequence of two 40 period market trials. The hypothesis that learning is helped by higher market frequency was corroborated, yet it was found that subjects transfer poorly when market frequencies remain unchanged across trials. This is explained by the fact that subjects in the changed frequency condition also expect a changed environment and so adjust behavior. When subjects do not expect change in market behavior, as in the unchanged frequency condition, subjects induce negative transfer, i e they transfer decision timing from the past. Since the markets’ external environments never remain identical, such transfer is less appropriate than structural transfer. Implications for stabilizing unstable markets and training professionals are finally laid out.
Various uses of system dynamics models in understanding and managing software projects have been discussed in a series of articles by Tarek Abdel-Hamid and Stuart Madnick. Our work extends Abdel-Hamid and Madnick’s work by constructing a simulation game that can be used by mangers as a participatory learning laboratory. The game is implemented on IBM-PC environment, using the graphics-based spreadsheet software WingZ. Initial tests of the simulation game have demonstrated it to be robust and realistic. The game is now in the process of being tested extensively by players with different backgrounds: undergraduates and graduate students of system analysis, faculty members, and software/MIS professionals. In addition to describing the game, our talk will contain lessons learned from these extended tests and experiments. The presentation will also involve an active demonstration.
Using a generic model framework, a consortium comprised of three manufacturing firms and one service company was able to create realistic representations of their internal and external competitive environments and analyze the consequences of their competitive strategies. The interface designed with the framework has proven to be a useful tool to support decision makers when they present their findings and analyses to their colleagues. Strategy simulations and the resulting scenarios can be useful tools for understanding the interrelationships of different elements within a competitive system and for identifying critical leverage points that may help a firm create a competitive advantage over its competitors.
In this paper a professional training schedule on system dynamics for engineers is discussed on the basis of ten years teaching and training practice.Three main parts are considered in detail. These are theory, practice, and final performance test. All examples included are to meet the specific necessity of engineers, and are coming from practical problems.An overall block Diagram of Training is presented. Practice shows this schedule is efficient and attractive.
:There are many different systems approaches and styles of systems thinking that have developed over the past three decades. There a few conceptual frameworks on which to compare the relative merits of each approach. This paper will propose such a conceptual framework, the “systems paradigms framework”. Within the context of this framework new systems approach will be described. It is labelled the “integrative systems approach”. It will be argued that the system dynamics perspective is the best existing example of the integrative approach. The integrative approach will be compared to the hard systems, soft systems, and cybernetic systems approaches, in terms of the systems paradigms framework.
We treat some problems of controlling the development of a two-phase system which is identified with the evolution of its inter-face. First we study the class of so-called decision change regimes and find out an estimate for the number of decision changes. Then we consider the possibility of optimal control in this class.