Online Content

1.Xu, Ching-rui,"Applications of System Dynamics in R&D Project Planning and Policy Analysis"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9880w828h?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:12Z
Descripción:
Emphasis on economic effectiveness and benefit in our country results in the emphasis of economic analysis in project planning and evaluation during recent several years. The weakness of existing approaches in project planning and analysis to certain extent is lack of dynamic in nature. The effectiveness of system dynamic approach in project planning and analysis is not only due to its systematic and dynamic analysis, but also due to its value in quantitative analysis and policy analysis. The idea and model of R&D project planning is useful in solving the above-mentioned problems. The learning curve nature in development activities. Adoption of task-performance coefficient as a factor in R&D system dynamics modeling. The labor psychological factor in our country and its characteristics in formulation of system dynamics simulation model. R&D as a major element is involved in the model. Policy analysis through simulation running is an important basis for decision-making in R&D project planning.

2.Wolstenholme, E.F.with P. Mandal,"Evaluating Alternative Scenarios in Agricultural Development in India"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/k930cf65x?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:11Z
Descripción:
This paper describes a current research project in national development, aimed at constructing a system dynamics model to evaluate development problems in India. The underlying premise on which the model construction is based is that the economy of India can be conveniently divided into two major sectors: those of agriculture and non-agriculture. Both these sectors are defined as being controlled by the government through the use of its own financial policies for generating investment in the development process. The investment is generated by assessing the domestic aspects of the economy and the government ability to borrow from external sources. The performance of the non-agriculture sector is, however, modeled in outline only. This limitation has been imposed since the study is basically concerned with agricultural development problems.

3.Wang, Qifan with Brian McKeller, Randy Schweickart and John Sterman,"A Simple Model of Energy Dynamics"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/b2774c713?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:10Z
Descripción:
This paper discusses the impact of the energy supply transition on the U.S. economy. An energy supply transition occurs when one resource base is replaced by a new source of energy due to some shift in the comparative economic attractiveness of the two sources. The effects of an energy transition on an industrial economy are long-term and far-reaching. The recently witnessed depletion of the 1970s may foreshadow a major turn in the path of economic development.

4.Wang, Qifan,"Using the Liapunov Principles in the Analysis of System Dynamics Models"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/xg94j6613?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:09Z
Descripción:
A new analytic method combining Piapunov's methods and eigenvalue analysis approach, a technique for identifying dominant loop analysis contributed by Nathan B. Forrester, is developed to search for the feasible and most policies in system dynamics models. The paper briefly introduces the Liapunov methods of stability analysis (the first and second methods of Liapunov). Liapunov's first method, under certain conditions, enables one to arrive at conclusions about a nonlinear system (original system) by studying the behavior of linearized systems. Liapunov's second method gives sufficient conditions for the stability of linear systems. Criteria of Liapunov's first method and Krasovskii's method, an extended method of Liapunov's second method, are both applied in the analytic method. The structure of the method and how the method is used are described. It is expected that the analytic method will become a new approach to testing models in order to seek the best feasible policies automatically in system dynamics.

5.Sterman, John D.,"An Integrated Theory of the Economic Long Wave"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/sj139k01r?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:08Z
Descripción:
The economic crisis of the 1980s has revived interest in the economic long wave or Kondratiev cycle. Since 1975 the System Dynamics National Model has been the vehicle for development of an endogenous, dynamic theory of the economic long wave. The model has now reached the point where an integrated theory of the long wave can be described. The theory incorporates many of he partial theories that have been proposed by others. Simulations of the model are presented to show the wide range of empirical evidence accounted for by the model. In particular, the theory suggests the long wave arises from the interaction of two fundamental facets of modern industrial economies. First, the existence of physical lags in the economy, limited information available to decisionmakers, and bounded rationality in economic decisionmaking creates the potential for inherently oscillatory behavior. Second, a wide range of self-reinforcing processes exist which destabilize the inherently oscillatory tendencies of our economy, leading to the long wave. These processes involve many sectors of the economy including capital investment, labor markets and workforce participation, real interest rates, inflation, debt, savings and consumption, and international trade. The paper discusses the relative strengths of these mechanisms and the amplification of the long wave through their interactions. The linkages of the long wave theory to innovation, technological progress, and political value change are discussed.

6.Singh, N. with D. Prasad,"A System Dynamics Approach to the Analysis of Indian Cement Industry"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/9w032k699?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:07Z
Descripción:
The production of cement pays the most important role in all the construction activities in the country. Due to rapid growth in the industrialisation and the development there is fast growing internal demand of cement. However, cement industry in India has not been able to cope up with the demand. Therefore, it is essential to study the demand and production aspects in order to evolve strategies to meet the demand. For this purpose, a System Dynamics model for cement production is developed. The production model is run for 16 years covering a period from 1974 to 1990 at three conditions, such as basic, optimistic and pessimistic. The different sensitivity runs are also carried out by changing the different parameters influencing the production. Different scenarios are generated and the gap between demand and production is analysed at different conditions. It is observed that this gap is closed under certain conditions.

7.Serra, R. with H. Sedehi and S. Vassalo,"Theoretical Approach to Long Term Company Behavior"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/wp989384h?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:06Z
Descripción:
In order to study the long term behaviour of complex systems, such as industrial enterprises, it is necessary to use reduced models with a limited number of variables. Here we investigate theoretically the relationship between these “mesoscopic” models and more detailed, “microscopic” models of the same physical systems. When the relevant variables evolve more slowly than the irrelevant degrees of freedom, a powerful projection technique is presented (Adiabatic Elimination Procedure). A pedagogical example is discussed, dealing with a large company in the field of computer science, which wants to increase its presence in a particular market segment by starting a cooperation with a small but aggressive company, already in that market segment.

8.Senge, Peter M.,"Systems Thinking and the New Management Style"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/ws85b057v?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:05Z
Descripción:
This paper summarizes the purpose, design, and initial results of the New Management Style Project.

9.Senge, Peter M.,"A Long-Wave Theory of Real Interest Rate Behavior"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/rj430p323?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:04Z
Descripción:
Businessmen, bankers, private citizens, and government officials share deep concerns over the high values of interest rates in today’s economy. Of particular concern has been real interest rate, the rate of interest adjusted for inflation. Although nominal interest rates have followed a generally declining trend over the past year, this decline has generally lagged declining inflation and has failed to keep pace with the drop in inflation. This paper is the first of two on the problem of high real interest rates. It focuses on developing a theoretical framework for understanding the role played by real interest rates in the long wave. The second part of the study will focus on the effects of government deficits and alternative monetary policies. The primary purpose of this study is to show that the downturn of the long wave can cause rising real interest rates even with no government deficit or change in monetary policy.

10.Sedehi, Habib,"A Dynamic Model for the Planning of Human Resources"

Type:
Document
Fecha de Creacion:
1984
Collection:
System Dynamic Society Records
Collecting Area:
University Archives
Collection ID:
ua435
Parent Record(s):
dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115, 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, and 6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1
Thumbnail Path Ss:
/downloads/xp68m070t?file=thumbnail
System Modified Dtsi:
2020-01-02T18:38:03Z
Descripción:
The methodology which this article deals with, is the fruit of the experience gathered thanks to the contributions of experts in the fields of programming, personnel and organisation. The willingness of such people has given rise to the instruments now available in the field of Industrial Dynamics. It is thus possible to design a methodology and simulation models which, with the help of a computer, offer an instrument which can answer the needs of those involved in the planning of human resources in a company environment. This model has so far been applied with satisfactory results in two technically different realities. At the present time, other applications are in progress which confirm the validity of this instrument.