Case studies of regulatory and social programs suggest that policy systems are dynamic. In the systems described, outcomes depend on how variables interact over time, and feedback among variables--“simultaneous” causation over multiple time periods--is more a rule than an exception. However, the most influential evaluations of public programs are studies using multiple regression. A recognized limitation of multiple regression is its relative insensitivity to multiperiod strategies, feedback among variables, and other dynamics. Accordingly, we maintain, the findings of regression-based and case studies commonly conflict. Simulation modeling can serve as a methodological bridge between case studies and regression-based studies of policy systems, improving theoretical models of the system and providing a way to evaluate the robustness of alternative regression models. The results of some early experiments along these lines are presented.

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Date created

• 1984

Type

• Document

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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6e5cbea1fd05527880f389afd8fb85d1

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23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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dcf80aca09fd0af264c0472357441115

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

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Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives