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下载PDF文件Forest, Tom, "Sustainable Civilization: Cohesion, Capacity and External Contacts", 1995
- 1995
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Human civilizations cover the Earth. In the last several thousand years, many civilizations have been created. Several still exist. Over the next few hundred years, they will change. The most likely scenarios are: 1) All current civilizations come to a quick end in conflict with each other. After several hundred years, new civilizations arise. Many have values and policies strongly contrasting with those of today's civilizations. 2) A new civilization is formed from a combination of today's, which then collapses in civil disorder. After a few hundred years, new civilizations arise, many with values and policies strongly contrasting with those of the world's current civilizations. 3) Today's existing civilizations coexist peacefully until they, in turn then together, dissolve in civil unrest. After a few hundred years, new civilization arise, many with values and policies strongly contrasting with those of the world's current civilizations. 4) Today's existing civilizations change their values, over a course of a few decades, to embrace values of sufficiency and sustainability. They coexist peacefully until, in a few hundred years, they coalesce into a new civilization. This paper describes a model to stimulate the characteristic behavior modes of one civilization's extent and intensity, and how it relates to a second civilization. These modes include externally generated pressure collapse; internal loss of cohesion and resource shortage collapse modes; and a mode of sustainable civilization.
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