Madnick, Stuart with Nazli Choucri and Michael Siegel, "Research Initiative to Understand and Model State Stability: Exploiting System Dynamics", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
In its Preface, The 9/11 Commission Report states: We learned that the institutions charted with protecting
national security did not understand how grave this threat can be, and did not adjust their policies, plans, and practices to deter or defeat it (2004: xvi). Given current realities and uncertainties better preparedness can be achieved by identifying, controlling and managing the elusive linkages and situational factors that impact state stability and fuel state decay and destruction and hence create new threats to the nations security. We propose to focus on the use of system dynamics modeling techniques to help understand, measure and model the complex dynamics shaping state stability, initially for two regions. We will specifically consider the impacts of unanticipated disruptions, such as a tsunami and its aftermath, on the dynamics of the two regions. For each region, we will develop a country model, along with an analysis of conditions and casual links between predicted futures plus corresponding mitigated options. The presentation will include an update on the status of this project.
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- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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