We argue that it is possible to explain much of the history of the world’s shipping markets since 1950 as the interaction of two balancing feedback loops: a capacity adjustment loop which creates a “20-year” wave, and a capacity utilization adjustment loop which generates a “4-year” cycle. We show how this insight has been used rather successfully since the early 1980s for practical forecasting of turning points in the shipping market 1 - 4 years ahead of time. The basic mechanisms in the shipping system create a strong “deterministic backbone” which is visible through the exogenous noise, and hence predictable with useful precision. Our experience leads to a number of questions concerning system dynamics best practice, for future research.

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Date created

• 2007 July 29-2007 August 2

Type

• Document

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• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

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298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134

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Part of

0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

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Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives