Barlas, Yaman with Suat Bog, "Automated Dynamic Pattern Testing, Parameter Calibration and Policy Improvement", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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System Dynamics (SD) is a special type of simulation modeling where
output validity refers to validating the patterns of dynamic behaviors, such
as oscillations, growth or decline. The developers and users of these
models (the decision makers and people affected by decisions based on
such models) are all rightly concerned with whether a model and its
results are valid. Structural model validity and validation have long been
recognized as one of the main issues in system dynamics. This concern
is addressed through pattern recognition and testing in this paper.
Another issue in dynamic simulation methodology is parameter
calibration; assuming that the structure of simulation model constructed
by the user is valid. Parameter calibration is the minimization of an error
function which is a measure of the correspondence between numerically
calculated output patterns and the respective real behavior patterns. We
offer a software that does automated parameter calibration with respect to
a given (desired) dynamic pattern. This particular feature can also be
used in policy improvement design.