The purpose of this paper is to explain the expansion and the contraction of the Norwegian mink supply in an expanding market, as a consequence of the mink pelt price and the mink farming costs. Significant variations in price, and time lags between capacity adjustments, breeding decisions and the fur sales, makes fur farming speculative, and only a small fraction of farmers generate their main income from such farming.Moreover, we estimate, using a Bayesian approach, the farmers’ loan fraction, their response to profitability and a few delays in economic perception and capacity adjustments. This model is the first one in a series under development, portraying the national and the international fur production and market. In addition to reflecting the Norwegian mink production, this model may be considered generic for international fur production. An international demand model is under development.Finally, empirical evidence indicates the relevance of our model to the current development in the Danish mink farming and to the Norwegian fox farming.