Arthur, Daniel, "Upscaling Diffusion Models to Represent General Purpose Technologies for Industry Modelling", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
ua435
Modelling of technology adoption has tended to be based on individual product diffusion, although traditional models have been extended to incorporate replacement, competition, generations of substitution and other managerial variables such as pricing. A question is: how can these models be broadened to represent service industry applications and generalised or upscaled to model the phenomenon of General Purpose Technologies? GPTs have the properties of pervasiveness and complementary technologies. GPTs suffer from long development delays or start-up problems involving the co-ordination problems of complementary bandwagon behaviour. System dynamics modelling is proposed as an effective industry-level modelling approach to link standard expert judgement market forecasting used in industry and theoretical analysis used by economists in order to provide robust technology management policies. This paper represents an overview of the work-in-progress research themes and a modelling agenda.