Sterman, John D., "A Skeptic's Guide to Computer Models", 1985
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Increasingly, citizens and policymakers are faced with the results of computer models and must make judgments about the model's relevance and validity. How can such decisions be made in an intelligent and informed manner? Can modeling be made accessible to the ordinary person or will it remain the special magic of a technical priesthood? This paper offers tentative answers to these questions. It first highlights the characteristics and capabilities of computer models such as are used in foresight and policy analysis. The advantages and disadvantages, uses and misuses of formal models are presented. What are the fundamental assumptions of the major modeling techniques? How appropriate are these techniques for foresight activities? What are the crucial questions a model user or model consumer should ask when evaluating the appropriateness and validity of a model? The paper is designed to help model consumers peek inside these computerized black boxes.