Unconventional gas has raised debates all over the world following its considerable contribution to the natural gas production of some countries such as the US. The Netherlands, which is a prominent gas producer in the Western Europe, also considers unconventional resources as an alternative to conventional production, which is estimated to significantly decline in the next 25 years. However, the development of unconventional gas in the Netherlands is surrounded by several uncertainties. In addition to parameter uncertainties, uncertainties in the boundaries and structures of the models used in the analysis of this future development play an important role. This study aims to investigate the effects of such uncertainties on the production rate of unconventional gas, by combining the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method with four different SD models. The results show a wide range of production rate possibilities, where the variety is mostly caused by the model uncertainties. This study can be extended with more model alternatives, and the results of this study can be used in further analysis for robust policy making.

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Date created

• 2012 July 22-2012 July 26

Type

• Document

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• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

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ab062956a014e30aaf02b44e9d33088e

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Part of

b90fd81032b7dbf0c9f90f3dc3a33f1c

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

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Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives