Piattelli, Mauro with Nicola Bianchi, Marta Cuneo, "A Model for the Polis, the Ancient City-State", 1994

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Polises are the ancient city-states that began to appear in the Mediterranean around 1000 . They were to be found not only in the area of ancient Greece, but also in Phoenicia and Etruria as well. These polises had different evolutionary paths and relationship with the sea. The aim of the proposed model is to simulate these different paths by introducing cultural factors such as the 'trade aptitude and 'conservative tendency' of the dominant classes and also by considering geographical constraints. The model uses nine main state-variables, four concerning population and five economy. Macro events such as emigration and/or expansion, which may generate new polis, are explained in terms of social conflict between the two dominate classes. The economic unit measure is yearly per capita consumption and the sampling interval is set to one year. The model description also includes a comparison with Forrester's well-known Urban Dynamics. The reasons for the choice of the System Dynamics methodology are expounded in the paper. Two-running examples are discussed and shown as output plots. They deal with a case of high social stability due to sea trade activity of the Emerging class, and also with a case of low stability with generation of new polises. In the authors' opinion, the model offers a general heuristic tool in historical analysis, but may also be useful for approaching present-day problems about the identification of a new development hypothesis for western civilization, in that it recognizes the fundamental role of cultural factors in addition to the economic ones.

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  • 1994
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System Dynamic Society Records

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