In an ever more complex and uncertain world, integrated risk-capability analysis methodologies that allow dealing with increasing degrees of complexity and deep uncertainty are needed more than ever before. Today, some governments and organizations use scenario approaches, risk assessment methods, and capability-based planning, but few have truly integrated risk-capability approaches, and almost none use integrated risk-capability approaches appropriate for deeply uncertain complex risks. However, many important risks are particularly dynamically complex and deeply uncertain. This paper presents and illustrates a novel integrated risk-capability analysis approach for deeply uncertain dynamically complex risks, and discusses near future developments. As such, it illustrates a multi-method consisting of Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling, Scenario Discovery and Selection, and MCDA, and discusses the use of Robustness Optimization for simultaneous all-hazard capability-based planning.

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Date created

• 2012 July 22-2012 July 26

Type

• Document

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• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ab062956a014e30aaf02b44e9d33088e

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23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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b90fd81032b7dbf0c9f90f3dc3a33f1c

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

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Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives