Dangerfield, B. C., "A System Dynamics Model of the U.K. Consumer Durables Manufacturing Industry: Some Preliminary Results", 1976
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The paper describes a system dynamics model of the consumer durables manufacturing industry in the United Kingdom. The model purpose is to analyse the causes and effects of cyclical fluctuations in the industry with a view to encouraging government or operational policies that might improve industry stability. The paper extensively examines the consumer durables industry and explains the model in detail, each equation being accompanied by an account of its construction. The results of the simulation experiments conducted on the model using various test inputs are described. The paper appraises the technique of spectral analysis, which has served as one means of assessing model validity. The model, once validated, should form part of a larger model which will also represent the steel stockholding and steel manufacturing industries. Work on the larger model is in progress.