Motivated by declining fish populations and the apparent inability of regulatory agencies to manage important fisheries, this research measures the accuracy of a fishery model that explicitly models the regulatory process and the resulting degree of compliance by fishers. The method involved careful review and enhancement of a prior model with a more limited regulatory sub model,and then measuring, for both models, the mean absolute error of model calculated values for historical spawning biomass, acceptable biological catch, and harvest. The most recent five years of data were held back so that model prediction error could also be computed. Results indicated that although the fitness error for the enhanced model was significantly less than the prior model (23% vs. 38%), predictions were improved only for one of the three measures. The implications for researchers seeking to endogenously model fishery management processes are sobering. Policy makers on the other hand will likely see the results as support for their instinctual skepticism regarding policy models.

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Date created

• 2007 July 29-2007 August 2

Type

• Document

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• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

298eed5a7fe199ac661be72f3a39f134

Scope and Contents

Part of

0619e689ce89476bfd3b88323c5a9410

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives