Ulli-Beer, Silvia with Benjamin Boksberger, Manuel Bouza and Alexander Wokaun, "Assessing threats and opportunities of induced technology change: Long and short term cycles in the carmaker industry", 2012 July 22-2012 July 26

Downloadable Content

Download PDF
ua435

ABOUT THIS ITEM

This paper introduces the industrial transformation model applied to the carmaker industry. We analyze the interaction between supply and demand as well as policy regulations supporting the diffusion of advanced vehicle technologies. It allows to assess prospectively threats and opportunities of induced technology changes for industries. The simulation exercise provides evidence that smart governance approaches involving concerted entrepreneurial and political decision making can avert severe industrial crisis of adjustment during phases of socio-technical transitions. The overall cycle pattern seems to play out over a time period of 50 years. It is strongly influenced by the climate policy regime and the innovation investment behavior of firms. It results in a sectoral boom phase once the transition towards near zero emission vehicles has been mastered. The policy induced technology change pattern is comparable to the long wave theory in terms of its duration and the argument, that deep structural causes are innovation processes in whole technological systems. Moreover, we have identified the drivers of single short term cash cycles. Differences between cash inflow and outflow over time that are triggered by strategy and policy changes explain short term fluctuations.

This is the whole item.

Date created
  • 2012 July 22-2012 July 26
Type
Processing Activity License

ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

ab062956a014e30aaf02b44e9d33088e

Scope and Contents
Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

Scope and Contents
Part of

b90fd81032b7dbf0c9f90f3dc3a33f1c

Scope and Contents
Collection
Collecting area

Items