Alkemper, Jens with Don Mango, "Simulation of the Reinsurance Market using Agent-Based Modeling", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21

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Prices in the Property and Casualty Reinsurance market are known to undergo significant fluctuations. In order to understand the reasons for these fluctuations a simulation model was built that replicates relevant features of the reinsurance market: a limited number of market participants are competing, low product differentiation, volume constraints for each market participant and discrete volume decisions based on estimated rather than actual market prices. Despite a number of simplifications the model captures the current market dynamics. In a further development the model was made interactive allowing actual “players” to take the role of the reinsurance companies and make the individual volume decisions based on current financials and the market history. The model was built using agent based instead of system dynamics modeling techniques particularly to simplify implementation of critical discrete events and to create a simple to understand structure. We will discuss the model, the trade-offs between the Agent-based and System-dynamics approach as they applied to this model and share some experience in communicating the model structure with the business owners.

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  • 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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Processing Activity License

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System Dynamic Society Records

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