This paper describes a model of the life cycle of the petroleum resource in United States. Expanding on prior system dynamic models of petroleum resources, the model endogenously generates the complete life cycle of the resource. The model treats endogenously the petroleum demand, the development of technology for and investment in exploration and recovery, the discovery and production of petroleum and the development of petroleum substitutes. With only two exogenous variables (GNP and the international petroleum price), the model is able to portray the evolution the petroleum resource, and the associated industry, starting in 1870. The correspondence between simulated and actual data is examined through a variety of statistical measures. The model is used to show how the interplay of technological progress, depletion, and the development of substitutes create the lifecycle by altering the dominance of the feedback processes in the system. A full documentation may be found in (Davidsen, 1987).The model constitutes the basis for more comprehensive studies in the following areas of concern, all related to the management of depletable resources: 1. Adaptation of the model to different kinds of depletable resources, and generalizations to obtain a model portraying the generic structure of the life cycle of a depletable resource. 2. Analysis and evaluation of current practices in the management of depletable resources. 3. Design and evaluation of alternative strategies for the management of such resources.The model seems furthermore to be a promising tool for teaching resource management.

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Date created

• 1987

Type

• Document

Processing Activity

• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

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ef456d2a6c943c510d5169405dfd9416

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Part of

83d7d84d4a906b77a877f50ccddf0ccd

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives