A system dynamics model of insurgencies is built using the US. Army and Marine Counterinsurgency Manual (FM 3-24) as a basis. It must, however, be supplemented by additional theory from outside sources to enable calibration to a historical data set. Parameter and policy analyses are conducted. These highlight the criticality of some features of insurgencies described by FM 3-24 such as the importance of obtaining and maintaining popular support and employing sufficient counterinsurgency forces to gather intelligence. Other features, not highlighted by FM 3-24, also are shown to be important such as how quickly does violence escalate during the insurgency and how easily can detained/eliminated insurgents be replaced. Finally, contraindicating the expectations of FM 3-24 and other conventional wisdom, results from optimization simulations suggest that the level of force used in a counterinsurgency should increase only once a preparatory period of intelligence gathering by those same forces has been completed.

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Date created

• 2009 July 26-2009 July 30

Type

• Document

Processing Activity

• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

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• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

4818cb531cdd68d6ec6af3f291216fc7

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Part of

b3584c6b53c3f58e0202549d7d851f84

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Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

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Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives