Krail, Michael, "Quantification of Climate Policy Scenarios for Long-Term Trends in Sustainability in ASTRA", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21

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One aim of this paper is to show the mode of action of the integrated transport-economic-environment model ASTRA that is based on the System Dynamics Modelling method. Furthermore two policy scenarios - one in which a tax per ton of CO2 emitted by transport will be introduced and another with a significant increase of crude oil price until 2020 - will be compared to a reference case. The reference scenario results will be analysed to identify long-term trends in transport, economy and environment. The scenarios results show the impact on a sustainable development by an introduction of transport emission pricing by policy makers on the one hand and of a stronger increase of crude oil prices based on the fact of growing scarcity of oil resources on the other hand.

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  • 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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System Dynamic Society Records

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