Kampmann, Christian E., "Disaggregating a Simple Model of the Economic Long Wave", 1985
ua435
A multi-sector, input-output version of Sterman's simple Long Wave Model is developed to investigate the validity of the capital self-ordering theory for a more realistic system with diverse capital types. Simulation experiments with varying capital lifetimes and input-output coefficients tend to reproduce the characteristic fluctuations in capital production, caused by self-ordering, with a period in the 30 to 70 year range. However, complex patterns of oscillation with wide variance in period can emerge, explained by varying dominance of self-ordering loops. The analysis thus confirms the destabilizing effect of self-ordering and its significance for long term fluctuations while raising issues and generating new insights about the-long wave.