Morris, Don, "Causal Inference in the Social Sciences: Variance Theory, Process Theory, and System Dynamics", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
The social sciences are in need of an alternative to the variance approach to causal inference, whichbecause it requires a counterfactualrestricts the claim of valid inference to conclusions drawn from experimental and quasi-experimental methods. Process theory proposes an alternative by way of demonstrating the presence of observable characteristics of the causal mechanism, a method that, while accepted in principle, has proven elusive in practice. It is suggested that system dynamics can improve the process approach, and in so doing open a path for itself to wider application in the social sciences. Educational research is suggested as a place to start, and results from two models drawn on topics from that field are offered as examples.
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- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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