Arango, Santiago, "Oscillatory Behavior as a Function of Market Complexity: Experiments on Commodity Cycles", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21

ua435

This paper examines results on a series of Cournot markets with groups of five seller subjects. Step by step, we add complexity (and realism) to the simplest market and test the effects on behavior in an accompanying laboratory experiment. Consistent with previous experiments and the rational expectations hypothesis, price behavior was explained with Cournot Nash equilibrium with biases towards competitive prices. When complexity is increased, there rationality is degraded and lead to a salient cyclical tendency. Indications of cyclical behavior were induced by the application of spectral analysis and autocorrelation. We found that the more problematic effect of complexity in market behavior is the extra delay rather than accumulations. We proposed a heuristic based on the bounded rationality theory, but the tests were not satisfactory.

This is the whole item.

Date created
  • 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
Type
Processing Activity License

ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae

Scope and Contents
Part of

3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022

Scope and Contents
Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

Scope and Contents
Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents
Collecting area

Elementi