Dhawan, Rajat with Marcus O'Connor and Mark Borman, "Mental Models and Dynamic Decision Making: An Experimental Approach for Testing System Methodologies", 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
Systems thinking and system dynamics are widely used methodologies for studying and managing complex systems. A two-way interaction between a persons mental model and an explicit representation of that model leads to an improved understanding of the system. However, the effect of these techniques on a persons dynamic decision-making abilities is yet not fully known. To explore this relationship, an experimental study was conducted. Results show that most participants initially had poor understanding of basic dynamic situations. However, the completeness and accuracy of their mental models improved considerably with system interventions. Specifically participants ability to discern between stocks and flows, identify causal relationships and feedback improved by around 27% after a systems thinking intervention. These abilities further increased by around 4% after participants underwent a system dynamics intervention. Interestingly, in complex tasks that required an in-depth analysis, systems thinking hardly made any positive effect on participants decision-making. However, for the same situation, participants mental models improved by 8-50% after system dynamics intervention. The results of this study confirm with the results of some of the previous studies done in this area and provide a deeper insight on the impact of systems thinking and system dynamics on dynamic decision-making
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- 2006 July 23-2006 July 27
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