Bakken, Bent Erik with Pål Ostbye and Arne Roksund, "Transforming a Military Personnel Policy – Learning from a Model Supported Intervention", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21

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The Norwegian Armed Forces used to have a unitary personnel policy. All officers were recruited with prospects of life-long employment. The long time constants in such a system meant that a transformation into a younger corps was almost impossible to achieve. The model-supported intervention significantly reduced the probable risk of failure in policy design and implementation. A number of achievements must be attributed to the model intervention per se. First, the model’s base case projected a 100% surplus of senior officers. This was an eye-opener. Moreover, the lack of suitable options within the current policy regime became obvious. Finally, the suitability of the new policy was convincingly presented and its implementation success virtually secured. The success of the model intervention is discussed. Though the most aggregated model sufficed analytically, the existence of a more detailed model that reflected the production system, crucially enhanced the analysis’ face validity, especially as a cost analysis was called for. However, more critical than the model’s transparency was that the results fell within the comfort zone of most key stakeholders. The results challenged intuitions enough so that the model was considered invaluable, but not so much so as to question the approach.

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  • 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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Processing Activity License

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