The principal objetive of this study is to determine the production trend until 1995, taking into account the future behaviour of the variables which are involved in the explanation of the home market demand as well as exports of footwear. The forecasts have been made using a prospective model. By prospective is meant the effort involved to imagine the different futures which may be caused by the behaviour of the "actors" within the logial limits of the systems through which they act. In this paper a distinction is made between the variables whose dynamics are almost always constant and those which may be affected by the decision of the 'actors' or by unforesceable events. The prospective study seeks to understand the plans which the actos will try to carry out and will affect its future behaviours.These options become especially clear in the construction of partial or complete scenario. Scenario, according to the definition of Fontela (1980) is the script of a theatrical work about the future in which economic and social agents would be involved. To construct a scenario for the future is a creative task in which, implicitly or explicitly, all long-term decision makers play a part.Hence to study a scenario of the development in the next decade is to analyse one of the potential futures, being fully aware of the essentia1 unpredictabi1ity of the future and of our full freedom of choise.

This is the whole item.

Date created

• 1986

Type

• Document

Processing Activity

• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

License

• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
  Contact Us for questions or additional rights.

ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8

Scope and Contents

Part of

a6ba3d432669bb4e7e5d1d631a535030

Scope and Contents

Part of

8be0def879466bb233ec7ae0e7a56898

Scope and Contents

Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives