Roberts, Carole with Brian Dangerfield, "Estimating the Parameters of an AIDS Spread Model Using Optimisation Software: Results for Two Countries Compared", 1992
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Few real life case study examples exist concerning optimisation in system dynamics models. This study reports an attempt to estimate relevant parameters of an AIDS spread model in order to check whether the chosen model structure can be separately parameterised and thereby explain the course of the epidemic for more than one country. The UK and USA are the two countries selected and the parameter values derived are reported for each. The values obtained are not inconsistent with emerging knowledge about the epidemic and the subsequent optimised projections reveal that the peak of the homosexual epidemic has been or is about to be reached in both countries.