Mould, G. I., "Short Term Manpower Planning: Time Basic Simulations vs Systems Dynamics Approach", 1994

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The bulk of the literature on manpower planning models deals with long term planning and strategy evaluation. The most common approach is to use a Markov type model. This can readily model wastage and promotion rates, together with training policies and can be used to evaluate the longer term impact of personal policies. However many manpower planning problems span a much shorter time period and precise modeling of training and promotion strategies is inappropriate. This paper presents such problem. Staff planning procedures were required to reduce a large but temporary backlog of work. Two modeling approaches are contrasted: a time base simulation (a decision support system approach) and a system dynamics approach. The simulation model was encoded in a spreadsheet this enabled management to easily make alternatives, to the model data. The systems dynamics model presented a graphical representation of the problem which made all the modeling assumptions explicit. Both models could assess management alternatives, the spreadsheet model was able to provide very detailed information, whilst the main strength of the system dynamics model was its ability to provide more general results for the longer term. With both approaches the cooperation of management was essential for suggesting practical solutions.

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  • 1994
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System Dynamic Society Records

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