Saeed, Khalid with M. A. Satter and Gajendra Singh, "Rice Crop Production Policies and Food Supply in Bangladesh", 1983
This paper examines the role of food producers, population, and the government on the present availability of food in Bangladesh. The study employs a system dynamics model of the population-food-production system for its analysis. This model incorporates mechanisms of production and consumption of food, and population growth. Government policies are considered exogenously. The analysis suggests that, due to the presence of a feedback relationship between food availability and population growth, any policy for improving food supply cannot be considered independently of time. In the long run, none of the policies tested alleviates the shortage, although in the short and intermediate runs, agricultural development and population control policies may improve food consumption per capita. The paper thus seriously questions the rationale of agricultural development policies aimed at increasing food production. However, since many food surplus countries support small populations which are also growing at slow rates, points of entry for policies that effectively alleviate the food shortage should exist. Thus, food policy models for the developing countries should aim at identifying such entry points into the system instead of attempting to increase the food supply.
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