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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Our paper presents a model of economic impacts arising from disruptions to critical infrastructures. This model is a component of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) which simulates the dynamics of a set of interconnected individual infrastructures. We use factors of production (such as energy, telecommunications, and labor) from the CIP/DSS model to estimate the effects of interruptions to these infrastructures. The system dynamics approach we use is compared to equilibrium-based approaches such as input-output modeling. This method allows an understanding of the economic benefits of various protective measures. We incorporate non-equilibrium dynamics that arise from these disruptions to provide values for various economic impacts such as lost revenues and lost sales. The results from a disruption due to an infectious disease outbreak are presented. We show that the effects of quarantine dominate the overall economic impacts in a number of cases.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Accounts of the real-world use of system dynamics as a policy evaluation tool in macro-economic management are relatively rare. This paper offers an overview of current research being undertaken for the government of the State of Sarawak in E. Malaysia where an SD model is being formulated to inform the States future economic and social planning to 2020. Although still a work-in-progress, enough has been achieved to enable an interim account of the research to be written. Positive engagement with State government officials at the highest level has put system dynamics on the map in this corner of SE Asia.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Distribution must make a decision regarding its role in the specialty contracting supply chain. It can continue its historical role as wholesale/retail combination and hope for profitability, or it can choose to manage the channel by providing low cost products and services. Profitability can only come through system productivity. System productivity depends on recognition and elimination of waste in the current operations and can be further improved by operational process innovation. The cost drivers (CDs) of distributors can be impacted by identifying and addressing internal inefficiencies, effects of customer interactions, and the impact of suppliers on price and delivery. By managing the following elements, distributors can improve their bottom line by better than 30%: 1. First-time pass yield of order taking and delivery 2. Identification and reduction of waste 3. Customer point of entry This paper suggests a methodology for improving the system productivity through management of these elements.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- We still know very little about the long-term learning patterns of organizations. Analysis tends to favor the more immediate factors over more distant ones. We focus on synchronic portrayals of the organization while ignoring diachronic representations. The model presented here analyzes changes in the state of the organization over time. It describes and investigates the totality of forces and actions that generate the organization's dynamic. It offers a speeded-up aging of the organization intended to bring out, over time, the counter-intuitive effects of decisions. Moreover, it endeavors to identify the cost drivers that contribute to increasing or shrinking the firm's profits. We have used the meta-model that we developed to derive an application model whose purpose is to reproduce the long-term life of an organization. Our simulation speeds up the aging of the organization, enabling us 1) to show the counter-intuitive effects of decisions over the long term versus the short term, and 2) to highlight the cost drivers that generate hidden costs. Through its decisions, the firm gives rise to its own factors of development and decline: its own actions eventually change both the organization's health and its properties.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- Previous research has shown that individuals fail to understand the basic building blocks of complex systems such as stocks and flows, feedbacks, and time delays. This paper presents three empirical studies intended to understand why individuals misperceive the relationships between stocks and flows. We used problems that were quite familiar to the participants, interventions to motivate participants to think harder in the problem, simplifications of graphs and direction of attention to specific aspects of the graphs. The results seem to disclose some of the mechanisms that individuals use to make their inferences about the graphs. That is, individuals attend to the most salient features of the graphical representation to make their inferences about the stock in the task. Does this really imply a misunderstanding of stocks and flows? We believe the further research needs to address this problem in realistic presentations rather than graphical representations.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- In this paper we discuss the way in which dynamic modeling can be used to deal with front-end, back-end and integration issues in current high-tech virtual supply chains (SC). In a first part of the paper we review and propose dynamic modeling options to connect customer value to business targets. This is done by explaining how to characterize target market by formalizing what are often informal but deeply held beliefs about what drives their customers' purchase decisions. We explain how dynamic models may help to connect planned investments to expected improvements in the customer's perception of the product critical attributes and thus increase sales, revenue, and market share. In a second part of the paper we review and discuss the operational and financial effectiveness of existing virtual tools used in supply chain integration. We discuss how dynamic modeling may help to obtain a comprehensive model of supply chain integration. A modeling effort that can be used for the analysis of the effectiveness of various levels of integration. In a third part of the paper we discuss and explain experiences in modeling different types of supplier contracts to accomplish varying degrees of security and flexibility.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- The aerospace, IT, and construction industries have seen a significant shift over the past few years from "cost-plus" contracts (where "every change is good", and means more revenue), toward "fixed-price" or "ceiling value" contracts (where the cost of every change must be negotiated with the customer or traded off against other work). The disruptive effects of these changes are substantial, but are universally poorly (and under-) estimated. The result has been unexpected cost overruns, lost profits, and disputes. This workshop will combine lecture and group exercise to teach valuable lessons about project disruption dynamics. In the session you will learn how change impacts spread to disrupt a project's performance and learn some mitigations to reduce or avoid the disruptive impacts of changes. For further information please contact Tom Kelly at tom.kelly@paconsulting.com.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- This paper addresses the question of whether there is a conceptual model that can explain operational risk in a wide range of organizations. It utilizes case studies and other research literature to build on the foundation laid by previous modeling research into system failures. The validity of the model is tested by how well it fits the parameters of operational risk failures and successes in case studies representing a diverse range of situations in manufacturing, mining, financial services and government.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- The possible diffusion of plant-derived vaccine (PDV) biotechnology in developing countries offers an interesting potential substitute to existing more expensive vaccine technology currently available on the market. This paper is concerned with the potential impact that the introduction of such a technology could have on the cost of immunization, and also, more broadly on the incidence of hepatitis B cases on Indias population overtime. The objective of the paper is to look at the hypothetical issues of a PDV diffusion using a system dynamics (SD) model. Some illustrative results are presented to show the interaction between infection rates, mortality rates, and immunization costs. In spite of promising features, such as much lower production costs, institutional hurdles to a widespread diffusion of the technology still need to be overcome.
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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 3c582e6f5cf305ef0030c7471b499022, and cc5bb0ac12a5b68b26b1583548898dae
- Description:
- This article examines the conceptual framework for the social amplification of a risk issue with an analytic lens of System Dynamics. It will explore the dynamic interaction of general public, mass media, government agencies, and non-profit organizations; or what is called social stations, with regard to the national project of constructing the high-speed railway in Korea which was stopped by a Buddhist nuns 100-day hunger strike for protecting salamander and natural environment. Existing studies show that risk amplification occurs when media sensationalism causes risk perception and public concern to be magnified far beyond levels proportional to the risks estimated in risk assessment science. The case study underlines that social amplification is much accelerated within a highly networked society, or internet environment. Such process can create political over-activism or disruption, social conflict, or policy failure more costly than what the issue is.