A demonstration and discussion of the process and benefits of building a 'high level' strategic simulation tool for a UK Health Authority seeking to build an evidence base to support strategic investment decisions across the primary and secondary health care system. The presentation will discuss the key drivers for change and performance expectations in the UK health system. It will describe the rationale behind the Health Authority's request and the means of delivering on this. Particular emphasis will be placed on the learning process that took place during model construction, the key links to strategic decision making, evidence of the benefits to the Authority during and since the simulator development and the way in which the simulator tool has been placed locally to inform and influence performance monitoring. The workshop will demonstrate the model itself as well as outputs generated by at least one 'future scenarios' workshop held locally.
Problems of strategic human resource management, such as proposed reductions in prospective retirement benefits under an American pension plan, present complex challenges. Typically, a firm pursues strategic objectives such as Cost control through changes in focal policies and programs affecting its workforce. At such times a firm should be wary of long-term consequences among individual employees, since the firm, its programs, and its employees, comprise a three-level feedback system. Unintended consequences at the micro-organizational level may lead in turn to additional unpleasant surprises at the program or firm levels. This paper discusses the development of a simulation model combining the approaches of agent based and system dynamics disciplines in addressing a clients multi-level concerns. It articulates differences between the agent based and system dynamics modeling disciplines in the service of this task, and discusses issues of implementation and praxis which have governed our design at points of tangency between these approaches in such a hybrid model.
There are some industries whose strategic innovations are easier and faster to replicate because the products are mostly commodities, one of such industries is the fast-moving consumer goods industry (FMCG). In the fast-moving consumer goods industry, companies face a very difficult, if not almost impossible, task developing a competitive advantage based on differentiation or low cost strategies. The main reason is that competitors match or, even overtake innovations and costs reductions in a very short period. A case study illustrates the competitive dynamics of a market segment of this industry using a behavioral model (Morecroft, Lane, and Viita, 1991). The model captures the management team understanding of the competitive dynamics of the industry.
The resource-based view of strategy (RBV) seeks to explain why some firms consistently outperform rivals in the same industry by acquiring a unique set of strategic assets (or resources). We suggest firms achieve competitive advantage through cognitive asymmetries (differences between dominant managerial mental models) that lead rival management teams to implement distinct resource building strategies. This managerial and cognitive view of competition and rivalry lends itself to investigation through problem structuring methods. We suggest that resource maps, as a problem structuring method, can be used to interpret managerial mental models for strategic decision-making in terms of resource building processes. Through resource maps, we represent the system of asset stocks believed to be most important for driving business performance. We illustrate the framework by comparing and contrasting maps of the system of resources (asset stocks) that best characterise the four leading firms in the UK Commercial Radio Broadcasting Industry.
There is an economic reason to extend the useful life of the landfill because once the old landfill is filled, the new one can be found only at greater distance, and this increases remarkably the transportation cost. Therefore, waste has to be recovered as much as possible. To do this, in developing countries context, small scale composting promotion is widely accepted and the contribution of informal recycling is also widely recognized. The question remains to what extent composting and informal recycling contribute to the waste diversion. To create a platform for discussion and learning, a model is established. The model in this paper is based on the system dynamics (SD) approach. The simulation results with the data collected in Phnom Penh city, Cambodia, show that waste recovery through small-scale composting and informal recycling cannot contribute significantly to the waste diversion without other supporting policies.
One aim of this paper is to show the mode of action of the integrated transport-economic-environment model ASTRA that is based on the System Dynamics Modelling method. Furthermore two policy scenarios - one in which a tax per ton of CO2 emitted by transport will be introduced and another with a significant increase of crude oil price until 2020 - will be compared to a reference case. The reference scenario results will be analysed to identify long-term trends in transport, economy and environment. The scenarios results show the impact on a sustainable development by an introduction of transport emission pricing by policy makers on the one hand and of a stronger increase of crude oil prices based on the fact of growing scarcity of oil resources on the other hand.
A small group at the School of Social studies in Brno and Proverbs Inc. Prague, Czech republic, worked on a composition of a model, which is to test communication policies. The City hall faces problems in communication and explaining some of its long-range goals. The model is derived from the J.W. Forresters model of urban growth and includes also some soft variables, which seriously effect the perceived leadership role of the City hall and its ability to proceed further and to gain public support. The paper discloses the structure of the model as well as the process of its construction and obstacles, which the group encountered while attempting to offer its expert service.
We examine the development of automaton-modeling multipurpose simulation systems as an efficient form of simulation software. Such systems constitute a singe problemoriented package of applications based on general simulation model, which is equipped with task source language, interaction, and file management tools, and an output editor. The simulation models are described by the method of probabilistic-automaton modeling, which ensures standard representation of the modeling algorithm. An example of such systems includes the Demographic Forecasting System (DEPROG) main description of which is represented in the article.
The aim of presented research is the construction of mathematical model of
ethnic field. The model is described by the system of parabolic
equations. It is the tools for research the evolution of interactive
ethnic systems under landscape influence.
The ethnic system includes a few ethnoses and provides their interactions.
The interactions transmit by ethnic fields.
This model describes the behavior of society on ethnic solidarity
level.
The software TERRI is used for the forecast of arising the
ethnic conflicts. We carry out analysis of simulation results of ethnic
fields: ethnic map coloring; delimitation three borders between
super-ethnoses on the ethnic map of investigation region;
comparison the experimental data with the
facts; relationship of ethnic fields model with real ethnic processes.
Based on simulation result the researcher can
compute the direction of ethnic field distribution and the most
probable points of skirmish between ethnoses.