We still know very little about the long-term learning patterns of organizations. Analysis tends to favor the more immediate factors over more distant ones. We focus on synchronic portrayals of the organization while ignoring diachronic representations.
The model presented here analyzes changes in the state of the organization over time. It describes and investigates the totality of forces and actions that generate the organization's dynamic. It offers a speeded-up aging of the organization intended to bring out, over time, the counter-intuitive effects of decisions. Moreover, it endeavors to identify the cost drivers that contribute to increasing or shrinking the firm's profits.
We have used the meta-model that we developed to derive an application model whose purpose is to reproduce the long-term life of an organization. Our simulation speeds up the aging of the organization, enabling us 1) to show the counter-intuitive effects of decisions over the long term versus the short term, and 2) to highlight the cost drivers that generate hidden costs. Through its decisions, the firm gives rise to its own factors of development and decline: its own actions eventually change both the organization's health and its properties.
Previous research has shown that individuals fail to understand the basic building blocks of complex systems such as stocks and flows, feedbacks, and time delays. This paper presents three empirical studies intended to understand why individuals misperceive the relationships between stocks and flows. We used problems that were quite familiar to the participants, interventions to motivate participants to think harder in the problem, simplifications of graphs and direction of attention to specific aspects of the graphs. The results seem to disclose some of the mechanisms that individuals use to make their inferences about the graphs. That is, individuals attend to the most salient features of the graphical representation to make their inferences about the stock in the task. Does this really imply a misunderstanding of stocks and flows? We believe the further research needs to address this problem in realistic presentations rather than graphical representations.
In this paper we discuss the way in which dynamic modeling can be used to deal with front-end, back-end and integration issues in current high-tech virtual supply chains (SC).
In a first part of the paper we review and propose dynamic modeling options to connect customer value to business targets. This is done by explaining how to characterize target market by formalizing what are often informal but deeply held beliefs about what drives their customers' purchase decisions. We explain how dynamic models may help to connect planned investments to expected improvements in the customer's perception of the product critical attributes and thus increase sales, revenue, and market share.
In a second part of the paper we review and discuss the operational and financial effectiveness of existing virtual tools used in supply chain integration. We discuss how dynamic modeling may help to obtain a comprehensive model of supply chain integration. A modeling effort that can be used for the analysis of the effectiveness of various levels of integration.
In a third part of the paper we discuss and explain experiences in modeling different types of supplier contracts to accomplish varying degrees of security and flexibility.
The aerospace, IT, and construction industries have seen a significant shift over the past few years from "cost-plus" contracts (where "every change is good", and means more revenue), toward "fixed-price" or "ceiling value" contracts (where the cost of every change must be negotiated with the customer or traded off against other work). The disruptive effects of these changes are substantial, but are universally poorly (and under-) estimated. The result has been unexpected cost overruns, lost profits, and disputes. This workshop will combine lecture and group exercise to teach valuable lessons about project disruption dynamics. In the session you will learn how change impacts spread to disrupt a project's performance and learn some mitigations to reduce or avoid the disruptive impacts of changes. For further information please contact Tom Kelly at
tom.kelly@paconsulting.com.
This paper addresses the question of whether there is a conceptual model that can explain operational risk in a wide range of organizations. It utilizes case studies and other research literature to build on the foundation laid by previous modeling research into system failures. The validity of the model is tested by how well it fits the parameters of operational risk failures and successes in case studies representing a diverse range of situations in manufacturing, mining, financial services and government.
The possible diffusion of plant-derived vaccine (PDV) biotechnology in developing countries offers an interesting potential substitute to existing more expensive vaccine technology currently available on the market. This paper is concerned with the potential impact that the introduction of such a technology could have on the cost of immunization, and also, more broadly on the incidence of hepatitis B cases on Indias population overtime. The objective of the paper is to look at the hypothetical issues of a PDV diffusion using a system dynamics (SD) model. Some illustrative results are presented to show the interaction between infection rates, mortality rates, and immunization costs. In spite of promising features, such as much lower production costs, institutional hurdles to a widespread diffusion of the technology still need to be overcome.
This article examines the conceptual framework for the social amplification of a risk issue with an analytic lens of System Dynamics. It will explore the dynamic interaction of general public, mass media, government agencies, and non-profit organizations; or what is called social stations, with regard to the national project of constructing the high-speed railway in Korea which was stopped by a Buddhist nuns 100-day hunger strike for protecting salamander and natural environment. Existing studies show that risk amplification occurs when media sensationalism causes risk perception and public concern to be magnified far beyond levels proportional to the risks estimated in risk assessment science. The case study underlines that social amplification is much accelerated within a highly networked society, or internet environment. Such process can create political over-activism or disruption, social conflict, or policy failure more costly than what the issue is.
As a high school student who really enjoy the world of architecture, I use the Stella software to have a try on explaining the former of the curved roof of Chinese ancient architecture by system dynamics view: the factors we call structure, practical, aesthetic judgment, economy affect each other. The trend of the using of the curved roof was increased a lot at first, and then reached a balance eventually; the explanation itself has caused and satisfied my interest of a kind of research. But something more important is that I have cemented an opinion here: in our world, physical and mental (we call it a system), so many social phenomena exist under the control of different basic factors. Its more complicated than we expect most of the time. Luckily the system dynamics view makes us face the complicating world in a deeper, wider sight, and retrace the procedure of its former and change. Then we can make sense of world better. So this kind of try has encouraged me a lot.
The system thinking is a kind of new thinking mode that fostering the creative ability. It already has some successful applied experience abroad, particularly in education. In the chemistry teaching especially the calculation of chemical equation of high schools，students are always puzzled by the numerous and complicated superficies of chemical equation and hardly grasp its mathematics essence，which result in bad teaching effect.
This dissertation makes some beneficial quests. Aiming at the relevant problem of the calculation of chemical equation, we put up some teaching practice in 5 classes by using the system thinking method and its related software STELLA, such as the teacher's brief introduction to the software, the basic calculation model establishment way and students activity etc. In this process, students can hold the calculation regulation more effectively. At the same time, the study moving ability between teachers and students also improves dramatically, which leads to the exciting development in other realms.
In this paper, I try to grasp the inner significance of abnormally sustaining house price growth, or so-called house market bubble in Shanghai real estate industry by the tool of system dynamics which especially focuses on the systems with highly dynamic characteristics, and complicated feedback relationships involved, which is consistent with the real estate market system. The most fundamental purpose of this project is to see whether it is the speculators intervention that causes the problem of unsuitable high price in Shanghai house market or not and to see what kind of impacts both on the aspects of society and economic fields will be after the trend of speculation is quenched. This paper mainly divides the system into 6 parts, population and economy sector, family house demand sector, speculators demand sector, speculators profitability sector, house price sector, and house construction and sale sector to analyze how these subsystem can directly or indirectly work on the whole real estate industry in Shanghai.