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- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- Advances in all fields of medical technology have driven rapidly growing expectations of medical care over the last half century. The rate of growth of this demand for health-care had consistently exceeded GDP growth and, in many countries, the health-care bill had been absorbing an ever greater proportion of government spending. Governments throughout the world are increasing concerned that this growth is unsustainable. The pharmaceutical industry, whose products account for about 5 to 10% of the health-care spend, has based on a cycle of growing sales from ever more effective new products, fuelling a substantial re-investment in high-risk, long-term research and development, leading to further advances and new product introductions. Historically the overall sales growth has been founded on both price-related factors.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- It is increasingly common for companies to undertake a system dynamics study with the aid of outside consultants. However, it is still uncommon for even large companies to successfully bring system dynamics into the organization as an internal competency. This paper reports on the efforts at Eastman Chemical Company to create an internal capacity in system dynamics. At this point, Eastman has successfully launched system dynamics as an organizational approach to decisions making, and the effort continues to develop rapidly. Eastman managers must yet address issues of sustainability, however the process that resulted in a successful organizational start is of interest in itself and may help other companies seeking competency in system dynamics. This paper describes the launch of system dynamics at Eastman.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- DIAGNOST is a policy exercise based on a gaming/simulation in which managers and directors of institutions for the care of the elderly in a region of the Netherlands are given the opportunity to anticipate the coming changes in health care in general and in the care of the elderly in particular. A microworld is created in which the participants can safely experiment with various policy options. This paper describes the methods by which the game was constructed. Apart from the more of less customary gaming techniques, also system analysis and tools from participative model building are used. The results of the test runs and of the first official run are viewed and evaluated along with the methods and techniques applied during construction.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- System Dynamicists usually view simulation as a means to help them understand the counter-intuitive behaviors commonly exhibited by complex systems and to facilitate others’ learning about these behaviors. However, a second and closely-related application is typically overlooked: the elicitation of barriers to organizational learning in a non-threatening environment. In our experience, when clients are placed on teams and presented with a simulated future, the organizational defensive routines which prevent effective decision-making in the real world soon arise in the simulation setting. A skilled facilitator can then begin to address these behavior patterns in the (relatively) safe context of the simulation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- This paper deals with System Dynamics as an alternative to methods of problem-solving that are traditionally taught in colleges. It is based on my experience of teaching the use of the methodology for analyzing small system of finance, hydrography, demography etc. Testing out any hypothesis where System Dynamics is compared to another methodology is complicated, and I do not present any conclusions. I argue further that this has to be done by a qualitative approach. In the field of finance quite a lot can be gained by using System Dynamics. The given example of calculating the net present value of a cash flow illuminates my point. In traditional textbooks this value is given by a formula based on the assumptions that interest remains constant over a long period of time, and that there is no or constant depletion of money value due to inflation. In view of economic reality this description is very native. On the other hand, it is rather cumbersome to develop and use a formula that takes in account variation of annual earnings, varying interest and varying inflation. Similar observations have been my incentive for applying System Dynamics to various sciences. Quite a lot of traditional calculations can be greatly simplified by resorting to the methodology of system dynamics; especially when it comes to integrating complex, realistic assumptions into the models. My preliminary conclusion is that System Dynamics enhance the understanding and enables the students to go well beyond the oversimplifications of traditional textbooks, and that the use of the methodology in various disciplines should be advocated. It is further my belief that teaching the subjects in undergraduate classes creates an underwood of users; a basis from which further system analysts can be recruited.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- The counterintuitive associations, known as Bowman's Paradox, found between measures of financial risk and return for a large sample of companies across many industries have previously been explained in terms of the attitudes of managers to risk using prospect Theory. Similar results were obtained by the author from teams playing a system Dynamics based business game to stimulate a magazine publishing industry. Experimental results of the dynamics movements of the team companies within the financial measures of risk and return space are presented. Explanations based on organizational learning and adapting group decision making behavior provide an alternative account of the archetypal team transitions observed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- Functional economic analysis is a modeling approach that provides a uniform basis for analysis and comparison of alternative investment and management practices. The approach takes into account the costs, benefits, and risks associated with new ways of doing business and managing organizations. The entire purchasing process from initial request to final delivery, payment and accounting is being re engineered at MITRE. A complete resourced process flow chart was developed for both the present and proposed systems. An "i think" system dynamics model of both the present and proposed process was developed. The model projects the seasonal workload over the proposed system lifetime. Dynamic normal, overtime, and temporary staffing requirements were calculated. The new system reduced total requisition delay by a factor of ten. This will greatly reduced expediting actions and costs. Multiple data bases and computer systems along the process were combined into a single system. This greatly reduces data entry and reconciliation effort. The new process groups purchase requisitions by type that provides the opportunity for bulk discounts. All these will result in 37 million dollars of saving over a ten year system life.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- Scholarly research has long identified innovations as one important reason for internationalizing corporate business. This statement is represented analytically by cause and effect relations at the beginning of the project. Innovations, i.e. the underlying technologies have a crucial impact on industries and their development over time. The dynamic relationship between technologies and their industries will be explained on the basis of technology and industry life cycles. Subsequently, it is pointed out that one important precondition for generating innovations successfully is the organizational structure by which research and development (R&D) units are linked together. Basically, three organizational models which are examined can be distinguished: an international network models, the process of organizational learning on knowledge, relevant for innovations, takes place in different ways. To generate successful innovations, R&D personnel has to learn diligently and quickly from both: the new technological developments and from new or diligently and quickly from both: the new technological developments and from new or changing market needs. Proposals could be made to facilitate organizational learning in the field of R&D. Then, the organizational models are allocated to the quadrants of a technology portfolio. One axis symbolizes the attractiveness of the technology which basically illustrates the technology life cycle. This may offer a theoretical explanation of the need for adjusting organizational R&D models and the organizational learning process according to the dynamics of technologies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- There has recently been a revival of interest in the dynamics of the oil market, not least because its key determinants are still a matter of intense debate even though the turbulence experienced in the 1970s and the early 1980s has largely dissipated. One aspect of the discussion is how to appropriately model the market given that dominant paradigm of the 1970s - that of exhaustion of a finite resource - is no longer seen to be valid for the short time scales involved. Models that are based on the behavioral simulation approach typically use the target-capacity utilization (TCU) supply-side model in their description of events, but doubts remain as to the validity of the TCU hypothesis. In this paper we adopt a bottom up approach by modelling as closely as possible, from first principles, the strategies adopted by OPEC in their attempt to manage the world oil market. We also look afresh at the demand side of the oil market to capture the completed lag structures that characterized the response to price volatility. The complete model, constructed in Stella, is shown to reproduce accurately the hysteresis effect exhibited by the oil market in the period of interest.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1994
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, c060552994c1527f70693734935660f1, and fe35db792b573af835d96e6eba4759cd
- Description:
- This successful, large-scale introduction of system dynamics into education requires many supporting elements. One important element is an institutional structure that supports school change. A major part of such a structure needs to be the availability of expert system dynamics mentors to provide on-going training and support for teachers. This support occurs on three tracks. One track is relatively formal workshops and meetings spent cooperatively developing projects. Another track is classroom observation and documentation. The third track consists of encounters by the coffee machine, and consists of informal, brief conversations where the mentor and teachers can brainstorm ideas or confer on a current project. These methods of on-going support are preferable to the more conventional format of short-term intense workshops, which research shows has little long-term effectiveness. In this paper, the author discusses his experience a part of the System Dynamics Project in the Catalina Foothills School District (CFSD), located in Tucson, Arizona. Specifically, the author has been a system dynamics mentor at Catalina Foothills School District (CFSD), since the fall of 1992. As a mentor, the author works with administrators facilitating the use of system dynamics as a method of instruction.