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-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- In this paper, we connected the principles of System Dynamics with the intellectualized Decision Support System, proposed a theory and method system of “Simulation-Optimization-Planning –Decision”. An applicable Oil-Field Planning Support System is being built.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- In this paper a case study is described in which a consultancy method based upon participative modeling was used to support strategic decision making in the field of operations. In this case study the Dutch client company faced serious logistical and financial problems after an attempt to attain competitive advantage through drastic improvement of it delivery speed. The modeling project produced several valuable insights. These insights have resulted in a better logistical performance at lower cost. The participative approach taken in the project has made implementation of the recommendation resulting from the project easier. It has also resulted in a better quality of systems thinking and a better understanding of the operations system throughout the company. In short, in organizational learning. This case study has been conducted within a research project aimed at the development of a modeling orientated consultancy method to support strategic decision making in operations. Several observations made in this case study with respect to the development of this consultancy method are discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Input-Output Model (I/O model) is an approach developed in economic world for development planning of a Nation. The model founded by a Noble Prize Winner, Prof. Leontief, focused the operation on the determination of production of economic commodities needed for development of a nation. The mathematical aspect of the model requires matrix analysis using equation (A-I)*X=Y as the basic calculation. Surprisingly, I/O model has received wide appreciation for calculating the economic of many nations, including developed countries such as US, Denmark, and Japan, and developing countries such as Indonesia as well. On the other hand, system dynamic approach founded by Prof. Jay Forrester are getting more attention in recent years and people start thinking of using the approach to solve various national development problems. However, since the application of the technique for establishment of world model, no one country yet uses comprehensively the approach to the national development planning. There has been a case study using the technique to exercise the development of Java Island Ecosystem in Indonesia, but it still needs to be more promoted for further application of the theory.As the development process of a nation does not anymore cover only economic concerns, while the environment and social dimension of a country are getting more attention, a national development planning will certainly requires a more comprehensive approach to analyze alternative scenarios to the development of the country. In such a case system dynamic approach seems to meet the requirement of a national development planning.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- :The paper introduces a simple dynamical system associated to the influence diagram, which contains only qualitative information. It is analysed how with the information in the influence diagram only limited conclusions about the behavior of the system can be reached. However, with some extra qualitative information regarding the relative weight of the influences those limitations are overcome.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Long delivery delays and long asset life times can create market conditions that are not conductive to learning. An experiment recreated market cycle of 8 to 23 years. Subjects operated in a sequence of two 40 period market trials. The hypothesis that learning is helped by higher market frequency was corroborated, yet it was found that subjects transfer poorly when market frequencies remain unchanged across trials. This is explained by the fact that subjects in the changed frequency condition also expect a changed environment and so adjust behavior. When subjects do not expect change in market behavior, as in the unchanged frequency condition, subjects induce negative transfer, i e they transfer decision timing from the past. Since the markets’ external environments never remain identical, such transfer is less appropriate than structural transfer. Implications for stabilizing unstable markets and training professionals are finally laid out.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Various uses of system dynamics models in understanding and managing software projects have been discussed in a series of articles by Tarek Abdel-Hamid and Stuart Madnick. Our work extends Abdel-Hamid and Madnick’s work by constructing a simulation game that can be used by mangers as a participatory learning laboratory. The game is implemented on IBM-PC environment, using the graphics-based spreadsheet software WingZ. Initial tests of the simulation game have demonstrated it to be robust and realistic. The game is now in the process of being tested extensively by players with different backgrounds: undergraduates and graduate students of system analysis, faculty members, and software/MIS professionals. In addition to describing the game, our talk will contain lessons learned from these extended tests and experiments. The presentation will also involve an active demonstration.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Using a generic model framework, a consortium comprised of three manufacturing firms and one service company was able to create realistic representations of their internal and external competitive environments and analyze the consequences of their competitive strategies. The interface designed with the framework has proven to be a useful tool to support decision makers when they present their findings and analyses to their colleagues. Strategy simulations and the resulting scenarios can be useful tools for understanding the interrelationships of different elements within a competitive system and for identifying critical leverage points that may help a firm create a competitive advantage over its competitors.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- In this paper a professional training schedule on system dynamics for engineers is discussed on the basis of ten years teaching and training practice.Three main parts are considered in detail. These are theory, practice, and final performance test. All examples included are to meet the specific necessity of engineers, and are coming from practical problems.An overall block Diagram of Training is presented. Practice shows this schedule is efficient and attractive.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- :There are many different systems approaches and styles of systems thinking that have developed over the past three decades. There a few conceptual frameworks on which to compare the relative merits of each approach. This paper will propose such a conceptual framework, the “systems paradigms framework”. Within the context of this framework new systems approach will be described. It is labelled the “integrative systems approach”. It will be argued that the system dynamics perspective is the best existing example of the integrative approach. The integrative approach will be compared to the hard systems, soft systems, and cybernetic systems approaches, in terms of the systems paradigms framework.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- We treat some problems of controlling the development of a two-phase system which is identified with the evolution of its inter-face. First we study the class of so-called decision change regimes and find out an estimate for the number of decision changes. Then we consider the possibility of optimal control in this class.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- This paper discusses how to use the simulation data obtained from the adiabatic reaction calorimeter (ARC) to design the emergency relief system for chemical reactors and storage vessels to overcome the problem of reactors explosions resulted from excessive pressure and thus the disastrous incidents can be avoided. Here the styrene polymerization reaction is choosen as the reaction system to describe the design of emergency relief system using the ARC data. The simulation results show that the change of the initiator and the monomer concentration will influence the maximum temperature, pressure and the rate of temperature rise in the reactor. The simulation results also illustrate that in the designing of the emergency relief system, the larger the overpressure is, and the smaller the vent diameter will be needed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- The Delphi method has been used as a method of knowledge capture and consensus building in a variety of social and managerial areas for a considerable period of time and more recently it has been applied in the field of System Dynamics. This paper describes research into the development and application of a computerised version of the Delphi method to assist the development of System Dynamics models. It has been developed in the context of project aimed at improving the design and assessment of computer based information systems.The features of a Hypermedia based Delphi system that has been developed for the Apple Macintosh are described and the results of its application to a modelling exercise are discussed, with particular emphasis on its ability to create consensus influence diagrams.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- One of our major challenges in system dynamics, and a prerequisite for successful policy design, is to establish an understanding of the relationship between the structure and the behavior of complex, dynamic systems. In this paper, we propose the utilization of a combination of a phase- and a time-plot, called a structure-behavior diagram, to obtain such an understanding. To demonstrate its usefulness, we apply the diagram in order to explain the transient behavior of a simple ecological system and illustrate the dynamics of its modes of behavior under changing harvesting intensity. Our discussion focuses on equilibria and shifts in the dominant polarity and indicates a qualitative difference between the two with respect to resistance to bifurcations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- System dynamics models and executive information systems have complementary strengths in aiding decision making. Information system has vast data retrieval and presentation capabilities. Models provide a dynamic framework for exploring the long-term, systemic implications of decision and polices. This paper reports on an attempt to combine the two approaches-using the model as a lens to structure and view data sets. This paper briefly describes the lens-based executive information system method and explores four tangible benefits of this integrated approach to decision-making.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Negotiation between individuals, groups, and nation has been much in the news lately, and has merited the attention of system dynamic modelers, as was evident at the plenary session on negotiations at the 1990 International System Dynamics Conference. The “Behavioral Simulation Model of Single and Iterative Negotiations” presented there by Darling and Richardson provided a realistic model of critical factors negotiators take into account “while engaged in a joint decision-making process that leads to an outcome” (1990,299). This paper uses their model to explain why “long-term interdependent relationships…[sometimes] drift into increasingly competitive, acrimonious behavior…”(240). Using a fictional piece--“Tell Me a Riddle” by Tillie Olsen--this paper explores “the source of these [competitive] dynamics [which] may be found in the negotiators’ cognitive characteristics --the structure of problems they confront, their situational goals, and their behavioral limits and biases…” (240). After analyzing the behavior of the negotiators-- a couple that has been married for forty- seven years--this paper reframes the power distribution in the relationship and re-writes the script, using cybernetics and syntonoics, a system of interpersonal communication based on “being in tune with one another linguistically”(Elgin, 1987,23). The resulting script saves the wife from becoming a victim of her husband’s verbal abuse, and leads to more satisfactory negotiations.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- This paper reports results of research on modelling to support management modernization and institutional improvement. It considers middle and long term strategies, and it analyses the effect of successful programs. System Dynamics, an appropriate methodology to support institutional planning, may help to understand system organization, its internal structure and the impact of policies and external perturbations. Strategies analyzed here are based on information systems, management decentralization, and leadership.Simulation results are useful to understand the pertinence of selected strategies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- A STELLA model of a simple production organization is used to investigate the effects of different types of coordination on the adaptation of the organization to its changing environment.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- An examination of knowledge acquisition techniques and knowledge representation structures used in expert system development and technology forecasting, helped to determine how to elicit information from System Dynamics analysts. In this ongoing research, insights from the literature on knowledge acquisition, combined with knowledge elicited from System Dynamics analysts, are being used to develop an approach designed to improve the knowledge acquisition processes and structures used during the problem formulation and model conceptualization activities of System Dynamics. Also, preliminary insights are presented regarding the selection of knowledge acquisition techniques and knowledge representation structures.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- This paper addresses the issue of organizational design and its impact on long term business performance. There is evidence that organizations progress through a series of cycles. We examine the organization design recommendations of Forrester in terms of their impact on delays in a company. We then run a small simulation to explore the impact of these delays on long term company performance. We conclude that most organization structures act to impede long term performance.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1992
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 68f8be4710ef70435fee8d3c8bf4c1f7, and c1647c2958efc6aa1703a2b3e2d5c65f
- Description:
- Recently the traditional view of “health” as “regularity” has been challenged, and normality is conceived as a sort of constrained randomness and pathology as a loss of the so called spectral reserve. Dynamical diseases would be due to changes in the qualitative dynamics corresponding to bifurcations in the non linear equations describing the system. In this respect, some hematological diseases were modeled in terms of differential-delay equations by assuming a delayed regulation of blood cells production. In the present paper the temporal evolution of the hemoglobin destruction rate of 23 thalassemic children is analyzed. The results indicate that these models are to be partialy revised and that Thalassemia can be conceived as a dynamical disease. A relation between the qualitative dynamics of Hb rate of destruction and the clinical evolution is suggested.