The main objective of most system dynamics modeling project is to support some kind of strategic decision making activity. This paper describes a modeling project where the primary goal was to establish an organizational platform for change. The project was conducted with a group of mid-level managers of a company at the eve of a period of organizational change. This group of managers engaged in a series of participative modeling sessions, facilitated by the authors. Extensive evaluation of the project results indicates that such a platform for change has been established.
The article discusses some statistical techniques applied as confirmatory tools to the System Dynamics modelling and analysis of Blood Bank Inventory Management systems. Instead of using arbitrary means, problem definition and statements are corroborated with statistical mehods of correlation and formulation of adjacency matrices. This is extended to the estimation of some of the parameters of the system. Numerical Performance Measures (NPM) used to evaluate the system response to various inputs are discussed. The response of the system is illustrated primarily as time series plots. System trajectories or phase plane plots are presented with statistical inferences in relation to the model. It is concluded that for SD model refinement and analysis statistical techniques can be used judiciously as a confirmatory tool in unison with judgmental evaluation of the system.
The purpose of this paper is to explain the expansion and the contraction of the population in Norwegian rural communities. A preliminary system dynamics simulation model with emphasis on migration have been developed portraying a population sector, and sectors for kindergarten, education, housing, business, resources, and regional policy. The results of our simulations is being compared to actual development in eight communities for the period 1976 to 1988 with respect to the total number of employed in the private sectors as well as the number unemployed and the number of migrants.
System dynamics, in spite of its solid philosophical foundations and a very promising practical prospect, has not experienced the growth that one would expect from its potential. I argue that a major cause of this relative stagnation has been the lack of formal, regular undergraduate system dynamics courses in universities. System dynamics community must spend more time and effort discussing issues of university-level system dynamics education. This paper is an attempt to start such process. In the paper, I first present a taxonomy of different types of university-level system dynamics courses. Then, based both on personal experience and published literature, I identify four groups of problems and issues to be addressed by the system dynamics community before the system dynamics education can proliferate. These are: lack of formal teaching material, insufficient literature on teaching methods, problems of terminology, and insufficient emphasis on undergraduate system dynamics teaching. Personal experience has taught me that system dynamic courses are extremely rewarding for both the instructor and the students. Once the above problems are dealt with, I believe that the university level system dynamics education will proliferate, which should be a major step toward initiating an exponential growth process in the field in general.
A crisis in a previously successful enterprise occurs when the value generated by the company’s activities become insufficient to cover the total cost incurred during a certain period. Frequently, in our days management faced with this problems needs to modify company goals and reduce costs over a short time. The rapid changes of goals and aggressive cost reductions frequently cause unexpected and dangerous secondary effects. These may inhibit company growth for a long time after the costs are brought into line.
System dynamic models are tools that allow one to explore the quantitative behavior of systems through time. However, real systems are usually multidimensional with both quantitative and qualitative variables. Recent development in digital video and sound processing suggest the enhancement of system dynamics models with streams of images and sounds related to the systems those models try to represent. A framework to integrate systems dynamics modelling and multimedia technologies is proposed herein. A multimedia systems dynamics water pollution model is included for illustrative purposes.
This article presents a family of variously structured gaming simulations for training which have been once used to teach and experiment the learning tools of System Dynamics Analysis. These games, names after their prototype, are called The Games of Lucumia. Here we present also the results of a game modelled by the participants based on System Dynamics techniques.
In this paper a JIT/KANBAN manufacturing process is simulated using both discret event, and system dynamics methodology. The results obtained are analized and compared. The purpose of this research is to determine the aspects to be more conveniently studied by modeling the system with each simulation approach.
Group decision making and discussion often leads to unanticipated ends. The use of strategic support software to improve such processes yields higher quality debate. Simulation technology provides for explicit mental models, the exploration of assumptions, and instantaneous analysis of “what-if” scenarios. This paper will look at how the design of executive support software is shaped by dialogue and debate, and how interactive strategic management tools shape such discussions.