Online Content
Number of results to display per page
Search Results
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- The life-expectancy of industrial civilization is defined. A feedback model of the human life-support system is used to study system controllability at the global level. The inadequacies of control, calculations based on energy-use data, and other considerations are used to theorize that the life-expectancy of industrial civilization is less than 100 years.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- :Suburbs or areas in the periphery of the cities are troublesome to plan when urban growth takes place at fast rate. System Dynamics approach has been shown to be suitable to study Periurban Dynamics in spite all of all externalities in the system. Immigration, commerce and industry being some of the most important exogenous variables. Early experiments for small dormitory periurban region prove the techniques to be appropriate, but when commerce and industry dispute themselves, along with housing, for a share of land, the problem becomes complex and interesting. A simulation was carried out for the periurban commune of El Poblado, with a population of over 48000 inhabitants, in Medellin, Colombia. Good approximation was observed between historical data and model behavior. Few scenarios were explored in order to examine land-use policies.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- The optimum port size (which has the minimum total cost) can be determined by computer simulation model. The softwares HARSOL and HARCON which are developed in METU, civil Engineering Department, Coastal and Harbor Engineering Research Center, determine the port size which gives the minimum total port cost by processing the phenomena such as random arrivals and sizes of the ships, queue discipline and service for loafing/unloading which fits to a statistical distribution. HARSOL runs for the general cargo terminal and HARCON runs for container terminal. The optimization models are performed for a case study. The sensitivity of the model is investigated concerning the random number generation.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Under the framework of non-equilibrium theory, a model is adopted to analyse the educational economic system of China. By dividing the education levels into four parts, the high education, the basic education, the secondary education and the vocational -technical education, we study the relation between educational systems and economics. The development of chinese education and its economical benefits have been calculated and discussed.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- This paper reports on the initial results of a research effort to improve the long run effectiveness of organizational changes. The literature suggests that organizations frequently experience periods of stability that are punctuated by bursts of large scale change. Our objective is to understand what causes this pattern and what policies are likely to improve organizational performance through the change process. In this paper we present a causal loop diagram of the structure or our model, and discuss the reasons for this structure. This model does reproduce the behavior of patterns to which the literature refers. In addition, we report the results of some sensitivity analyses and policy tests of the model. These results have implications for managers. Finally, we discuss the limitations of our model in its current form, and the next steps that we intend to take.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- The system dynamics technique has been adapted to reflect the dynamics of the diffusion process from both behavioural and marketing strategy perspectives. The diffusion theory has helped in conceptualising and explaining the information process and in evaluating the various market interventions in the spread of new product innovations. The diffusion and adoption process has been studied with particular reference to the personal computer in India.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- <<Macroeconomic Multifunction Equilibrium Growth Model of Wuhan>> and its application is the first development application, it also the continuation of theory research and method research. This application model consists of 8486 parameters and 2689 equations. The results can be gained just one time by microcomputer. The sample period of the model is from 1978 to 1989. The prediction period of the model is from 1990 to 1995. They are both an entirety (whole). Its calculation results are output simultaneously.This application research report is written in 200 thousands of Chinese words and consists of four parts: 1. Macroeconomic multifunction equilibrium growth model of Wuhan; 2. The lab of macroeconomic system of Wuhan; 3. The prediction policy-making report of “the Eighth Five-year planning” of Wuhan; 4. 607 kinds of indexes output from the model.Because the paper length is limited by conference, only first part is translated into English. It mainly introduces the theory characteristics and structure of this application model, and the examination of the model as well as the new function of system software. The frame graph, flow graph and mathematic equation of the model are also introduced in theory and method research. Thus many places in this report are not detailedly discussed and are cited in the reference (1).
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- This paper presents an empirical analysis of the interaction between growth and income distribution for the Turkish economy over the period 1973-1979. The analysis is based on at multi-period, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model constructed for the Turkish economy, that permit’s the evaluation of distributional as well as growth consequences of alternative policies. Along with empirical testing of the model, three sets of experiments are conducted with the model. Counter factual trade policy experiments, alternative wage policy experiments and simulations investigating the distributional and growth consequences of alternative potential redistributive policies indicate that the size distribution of income is stable and very difficult to change with the policy interventions considered. Agricultural terms of trade is one of the most important determinants of reducing overall poverty, and policy instruments conducive to higher growth is not necessarily in conflict with the policies aiming at more even distribution of income.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- Taking the financial system of large industrial enterprises as the example, this paper makes a detail introduction of the method, steps and crucial points of programming financial dynamics model with the simulation software development workbench. The financial dynamics of the large enterprise consists of submodel of cost, submodel of fixed assets, submodel of fund, submodel of tax and submodel of price.
-
- Type:
- Document
- Date Created:
- 1991
- Collection:
- System Dynamic Society Records
- Collecting Area:
- University Archives
- Collection ID:
- ua435
- Parent Record(s):
- 23d738ba88f8333bc39725f9cb5bd0b8, 5d7e83a7ca6c4cd9ab0ccc8a805a7aa7, and d1cfc0fcedb4f6334f34d1ca11dcf292
- Description:
- This report describes on object-oriented approach to model representation. An object’s behaviour is defined by sets of rules. The system provides control of the model’s dynamic behaviour by providing simulation monitoring facilities. The main performance assessment is based on a heuristic analysis of simulation data which creates a specification of refinements to the model in order to better satisfy the predefined goals. The simulation life cycle is managed by means of a goal-directed rule system which examines the performance of a scenario. Based on the performance assessment, resources are reallocated by means of a backtracking strategy where the key features are the use of heuristic and domain-dependant search algorithms, and the concept of parallelism is used in the structuring of the optimal strategy.