Crawford, Catherine M., "A Model for Future HIV/AIDS Incidence in New York City", 1990

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An earlier effort at projecting the future incidence of AIDS among adult homosexuals in New York City is reviewed in the light of data for 18 more months. One of the previous models holds up well against the new data. The model projects a temporary leveling off or reduction in new AIDS incidence, followed by a long, slower resurge. The HIV transmission probability, given an infected partner, is estimated at around 0.003. This level is barely sufficient to sustain endogenous growth in the homosexual population. From this it may tentatively be concluded that the epidemic will not start to spread exponentially among the heterosexuals provided they engage in less risky sexual behaviors than homosexuals.

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  • 1990
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