Struben, Jeroen, "Space Matters Too! Mutualistic Dynamics between Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Demand and Fueling Infrastructure", 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
ua435
Pressures from human induced climate-change, pollution, and fossil fuel scarcity stimulate interest in alternative fuel vehicles, and in particular hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs). The transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to HFCVs is complex as various chicken-egg mechanisms interact in a highly integrated fashion, and the mechanisms are highly non-linear. This paper focuses on one of the most critical chicken-egg problems: the mutualistic dynamics of HFCV adoption and its fueling infrastructure. The effects of local demand-supply interactions on these dynamics are explored in depth. This paper develops a dynamic, behavioral model of vehicle adoption and fueling infrastructure with explicit spatial structure. Simulations are performed for a reduced version. A homogeneous market with strategically locating fuel-station entrants yields fast transition through the formation of adoption clusters (niches). However, under heterogeneous conditions the same micro-mechanisms can counteract the emergence of a sustainable market. Policy implications are significant. This spatial behavioral dynamic model (SBDM) can be used to compare targeted entrance strategies for hydrogen fuel supply. Insights can be used for an aggregate HFCV transition model that includes other mechanisms. Finally, the paper should stimulate a discussion on merits and limitations of spatial modeling as applied to more general socio-economic issues.
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- 2005 July 17-2005 July 21
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