Andersen, David F., "Why Mathematical Models of Public Policy Issues Often Don’t Work", 1981

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The central premise of this study is that complex models of social processes often fail to provide direct and useful evidence for policy makers because, of necessity, complex models are based upon five distinct classes of assumptions. At least two of these five classes of assumptions are based upon a priori or theoretical arguments rather than strict empirical arguments. Because of their inherent speculative nature (at least in part), complex models produce forecasts that are not admissible as evidence in an essentially political debate.

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  • 1981
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System Dynamic Society Records

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