The central premise of this study is that complex models of social processes often fail to provide direct and useful evidence for policy makers because, of necessity, complex models are based upon five distinct classes of assumptions. At least two of these five classes of assumptions are based upon a priori or theoretical arguments rather than strict empirical arguments. Because of their inherent speculative nature (at least in part), complex models produce forecasts that are not admissible as evidence in an essentially political debate.

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Date created

• 1981

Type

• Document

Processing Activity

• Processing documentation available at: https://wiki.albany.edu/display/SCA/Processing+Ingested+Digital+Files

License

• Creative Commons BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

  
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ITEM CONTEXT

Part of

Rensselaerville, NY, USA, 1981

Scope and Contents

Part of

Papers, 1981

Scope and Contents

Part of

Conferences, 1976 - 2018

Scope and Contents

Collection

System Dynamic Society Records

Scope and Contents

Collecting area

• This collection is part of the University Archives